Pride of Detroit
Is the Kansas City Chiefs dynasty over? Is Jared Goff (2-0 vs. him) a Patrick Mahomes slayer? Are the Detroit Lions about to roll over another AFC contender in their own house?
Okay, let’s pump the brakes a little bit. This matchup between the 2-3 Chiefs and 4-1 Lions doesn’t look as we expected it to in the offseason, but that doesn’t make Kansas City any less dangerous. This should be a tight matchup, and I’ll prove it to you with our Week 6 Lions vs. Chiefs preview and prediction.
It’s On Paper time.
The Detroit Lions’ passing attack has been pretty good and consistent this year, although it’s worth pointing out the degree of difficulty hasn’t been particularly high so far. Every opponent other than the Packers rank in the bottom-12 in passer rating allowed.
Still, Detroit’s passing attack has been tough to stop due to their dynamic weapon and extremely efficient quarterback play. For the season, the Lions rank:
Pass protection hasn’t been as good as some of the sack stats seem to suggest. Detroit has been relatively average at protecting Goff this year. Detroit ranks 14th in PFF pass blocking, 13th in pass block win rate, and 11th in pressure percentage allowed (per NFL Pro).
The reason you may not have noticed is that Goff has been fantastic against the blitz or even when pressured. The Lions still rank fourth in yards per play when Goff is pressured (6.3) and 16th in EPA/pass. You’ve already likely seen how dominant he is against the blitz, but here’s a friendly visual reminder.
The Chiefs’ pass defense has been a mixed bag for most of the season. While they are holding teams to very low yardage totals—ranking seventh with 190.6 passing yards per game—efficiency is a different story. They rank:
Coverage isn’t so much the problem in Kansas City. Their talented secondary currently ranks second in PFF coverage grade (76.9), led by All-Pro corner Trent McDuffie, who has allowed just a 62.8 passer rating when targeted, per PFF (11th among CBs with at least 100 coverage snaps).
However, pass rush is certainly a problem. They rank 23rd in PFF pass rush grade (65.9), 24th in pass rush win rate (37%), yet oddly ninth in pressure rate (37.2) and t-ninth in sacks (13). That seems to suggest their coverage is helping the pass rush gets home, which is supported by the fact that opposing quarterbacks are averaging 2.71 second to throw, the ninth-longest mark in the league. Side note: when Goff has over 2.5 seconds to throw, Detroit ranks ninth in EPA/pass and fifth in yards per...
