Pride of Detroit
The NFL 2025 season is here, and that means it’s time for another year of our On Paper previews!
On Paper is a preview I developed over 15 years ago that strives to do one thing that most NFL previews don’t: compare units that are actually going against each other. Too many previews compare which team has the better offense and defense. That makes little sense when those units aren’t facing off.
The other primary goal is to avoid relying on overall stats and to focus on putting those stats into context. A team putting up 300 yards and four touchdowns could mean very different things. If it’s against the worst pass defense in the league, that may be expected. If it’s against the best defense, it’s an outstanding performance. Most traditional statistics do not take this into account, and the advanced ones that do can be a bit convoluted.
So, I attempt to accomplish the same thing the advanced statistics do, but in an easy-to-digest way: via the charts below. Simply put, I take the raw statistics of a game (yards, yards per carry, passer rating) and compare those statistics to season-long averages. If the team performed 5% better than the season average, the cell is shaded green. If it’s within 5% of the average, it’s yellow. If they performed 5% or more worse than the average, it’s red.
At the end of each section, I provide an “advantage” on a scale of 1-5, based on three factors: how lopsided the advantage is, how confident I am in my analysis, and the overall impact I believe it will have on the game. This part is admittedly less objective, but 100% objectivity is impossible.
This year, with the help of my cousin (thanks, Jaime!) On Paper got a facelift and added a percentage difference stat to see just how lopsided each performance may have been. I hope you like it, and if you don’t, please don’t go on a social media rant about how new corporate designs are part of woke America. Thank you.
Last year, the Lions boasted one of the best passing offenses in the league. Outside of a slow two-game start and a wild five-interception game in Houston (they went 2-1 in those games, by the way), Jared Goff posted a passer rating at or above the opponent’s average in every single other contest. In case you needed a reminder, he was brilliant in just about every statistical category you could find.
So what’s different this year? Well, it starts with the offensive line, where the Lions will be starting a rookie (Tate Ratledge) at right guard, a 2024 sixth-round pick at left guard (Christian Mahogany), and replacing an All-Pro center (Graham Glasgow in place of Frank Ragnow).
Depending on who you ask, the...
