Pride of Detroit
The Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns helped each other out last week. Both in upsets, they took down teams that will help the other chase a division title. The Browns took down the undefeated Green Bay Packers, while the Lions beat up the reigning AFC North champions, the Baltimore Ravens.
Now, the two face off in a game that could be a lot more competitive than the 10-point Vegas line suggests. Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup with our On Paper statistical breakdown, preview, and game prediction.
Note: We are leaving 2024 data behind starting now. Additionally, a reminder that DVOA statistics are still not opponent-adjusted, so I am going to lean a little more on my charts than DVOA this week.
It appears the Lions’ passing attack is picking up where it left off last season. Even Week 1’s disappointing performance now looks a little better in the proper context of Green Bay’s strong start defensively. As he has for the past 2.5 seasons, Jared Goff is near the top of the league in just about every statistical measure:
What has helped Goff out tremendously is Detroit’s impressive pass protection, particularly in the past two weeks. The Lions have not given up a sack in the past two games, they currently have PFF’s third-highest pass blocking grade (70.7), and they rank 11th in ESPN’s pass block win rate (68%).
When not pressured, Jared Goff ranks third in the NFL in EPA/dropback, third in passer rating, and first in completion percentage over expected. When pressured, those rankings drop to 10th, 11th, and… well, first.
The Browns’ defense will be a formidable challenge for the Lions this week. Thus far, they haven’t given up over 200 net passing yards in a single game, and look what they did to Jordan Love last week:
The Browns’ defense forces you to throw quick and short because of good coverage on the perimeter (seventh in PFF coverage grade), and an insane pass rush (first in sack percentage) that doesn’t require a lot of blitzing (13th in blitz rate).
It’s hard to get a full feeling for their pass defense because facing Lamar Jackson has skewed their overall numbers—making them look pretty average.
But we can’t use Jackson as an excuse for the Browns defense because Goff’s Lions are just as lethal of a passing attack. And what’s particularly relevant to this matchup is something Erik Schlitt pointed out in his Honolulu Blueprint:
Entering this week, the Lions are the second most efficient team when passing to the intermediate area of the field, while the Browns rank 27th in efficiency in defending this area,...
