Pride of Detroit
Under Dan Campbell, the Detroit Lions have made a habit of playing meaningful games in Week 18. This time, however, the stakes are far less inspiring. Detroit enters the season finale with only marginal incentives remaining: the possibility of a more favorable fourth-place schedule in 2026, slight draft positioning improvements, and additional snaps for a few unproven players.
The Lions will head to the chilly confines of Soldier Field with fans stuck in a Twilight Zone–like emptiness and confusion, closing out the season by shifting focus toward fudging free agency numbers and making mock drafts as the primary points of intrigue.
Despite several injuries and the subtle benefits that can accompany a loss, Campbell’s team is still expected to compete with their “never say die” attitude, with most remaining starters available. Detroit sits on the brink of a four-game losing streak, is 1–4 in divisional play, and will face a Chicago Bears team motivated to secure the NFC’s No. 2 seed.
This article breaks down three key statistical matchups for Detroit’s final game of the season, as the Lions send the Bears off to the postseason and quickly turn toward a pivotal offseason, starting with coaching staff decisions and followed by roster evaluation. The focus will be on the Lions’ defense against the Bears’ offense, since there isn’t much to admire on the Bears’ defensive side aside from their absurdly unsustainable turnover rate, and the Lions’ offense is currently a factory of sadness that will likely disappoint expectations, especially without Penei Sewell.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Pro Football Reference.
Caleb Williams has had a number of his flaws corrected in Year 2 under Ben Johnson, but his accuracy issues have remained stubborn. He ranks last among qualifying quarterbacks with a 57.9% completion percentage and a -7.2% completion percentage over expectation.
Much of Williams’ struggle comes from his play on early downs. His metrics are buoyed almost entirely by his ability to make magic happen on third down.
On first and second downs, Williams averages:
On third downs, he’s much higher in the rankings across the board:
A handful of other useful stats illustrate his early-down struggles: he has a 3.0% sack rate (5th best), despite the highest average time to throw or be sacked (3.15 seconds), and second-best air yards to the sticks (-0.8) behind only Matthew Stafford. On early downs, Williams isn’t processing quickly enough, relying on extending plays and hunting for big gains while still avoiding sacks.
I’ve spent enough of these preview articles this season preaching how the Lions need to show up on third downs—on both sides of the ball—and I...
