Pride of Detroit
For the first time in four years, I’m previewing a Detroit Lions game that I know is “meaningless.” It’s been a good run for On Paper and the Lions, but it’s hard to put a ton of effort into this Week 18 preview against the Chicago Bears when the stakes are nearly zero, and the audience for a legit preview is small.
So this will be a super abridged version, where I don’t talk much about the Lions and rather spend some time on the Bears. There will also be no player to watch in each section.
Sorry for the bummer intro, but to the few of you actually reading this, I imagine you’re probably skipping down to the meat of the analysis anyways.
For the season, the Lions rank:
The silver lining to this lost season is that Jared Goff and the passing offense remained quite efficient despite significant downgrades in the running game and offensive line. This was a throwback Matthew Stafford year for Goff: no help from anyone around him, yet still produced top-10 numbers and dragged the Lions to .500 ball.
The Bears pass defense is fascinating, because if you look at any statistic that doesn’t involve their league-leading 22 interceptions, they look terrible. For example, passer rating—which includes interceptions—they rank 16th (91.8). Yards per attempt allowed (interceptions not included), they’re 28th (7.6). EPA (INTs included) they’re 16th. Success rate, they’re 23rd.
All is to say that if you can just avoid throwing the ball to the Chicago Bears, there’s a pretty good chance you’re going to succeed. Outside of one recent examples, the Lions have done a really good job of that.
One thing that also works in Detroit’s favor in this matchup is the Bears’ complete lack of pass rush. You thought the Lions’ pressure was slow to get there? The Bears’ pass rush is even slower, ranking dead last at 2.92 average seconds. They also rank 26th in overall pressure percentage and 21st in sacks.
Advantage: Lions +2. Goff is elite with time and (typically) great at avoiding interceptions, so this seems like a really good matchup for Detroit. My only hesitation is what their offensive line will look like if Penei Sewell can’t go, and that’s where things are trending right now.
Detroit’s run game has finally fallen off now that they aren’t getting the explosive runs that helped carry the unit early in the season. For the year, the Lions now rank:
DVOA is a lie. I am sad.
Well, the Bears are quite possibly even worse when it comes to this matchup. For...
