Pride of Detroit
Our On Paper previews have a tough job early in the season. For an analysis piece that relies so heavily on data, the first few weeks of the season deal with incredibly small sample sizes and last year’s outdated metrics.
For the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears, last year’s data may not mean much. The Bears have a completely new coaching staff and new offensive and defensive schemes that they brought with them. The Lions may be holding onto the same schemes, but with two new coordinators, it may not look exactly the same.
So while this week’s On Paper preview between the Lions and Bears will have the same charts you’re used to seeing, I will not be relying on that data much. Instead, there will be a heavier emphasis on Week 1 performances, with the acknowledgement that those small sample sizes shouldn’t be over-analyzed, either.
Here is my Lions vs. Bears preview and prediction.
Note: Because of the uniqueness of this matchup, I will be using DVOA numbers from 2025 only. These numbers have not been opponent-adjusted yet.
It wasn’t a very great start for the Lions’ pass offense, which finished 2024 sixth in DVOA. In Week 1, the Lions’ pass offense ranked:
So the offense dropped from an arguably top-five unit to an extremely average passing attack. The question is: why?
“Thursday Night Football” provided part of the answer: the Packers defense. Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, who in Week 1 completed 63.3% of his passes for 7.8 yards per attempt and a 98.3 passer rating, saw all of those numbers plummet vs. the Packers: 57.1 completion %, 4.8 yards per attempt, 85.4 passer rating. By most metrics, the Lions’ passing attack was actually more efficient than Washington’s. In fact, the advanced metrics were way better for Detroit: the Commanders’ dropback EPA was -0.133 (vs. Lions’ 0.045) and their success rate was 38.9 (vs. 47.7%).
That’s the good news.
The bad news is the Lions’ offensive line. The Packers’ defensive front gave the Lions fits throughout Week 1, and while the damage may not be as bad as you think, 19 pressure allowed (per PFF) is certainly not a good day.
Last year, the Bears had a strong pass defense (13th in DOVA) that seemed to fall apart a bit by the end of the season.
Despite a drastic change in scheme, Chicago is off to a decent start again in 2025, which speaks to their strong personnel. Despite missing three key defenders last week, the Bears managed to rank:
Okay, maybe that’s not as rosy as I made it out to be, but Chicago’s pass defense was...
