Pride of Detroit
Our Lions vs. Bills statistical breakdown, preview, and score prediction. It’s On Paper, Week 15.
The Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills face off this week in what is almost certainly the most interesting game of Week 15. Some are calling it a Super Bowl preview. Some are calling it a battle between two MVP-caliber quarterbacks. Regardless of how you want to frame it, it should be a treat for those in attendance at Ford Field.
But who has the advantage? Let’s break it all down in our Lions vs. Bills preview, statistical breakdown, and score prediction. It’s On Paper time.
The Lions pass offense remains top 10 in DVOA, but bordering on top-five in pretty much every other important metric:
As I’ve said before, the only statistic the Lions seem to be uncharacteristically “normal” at is pass protection. Detroit is 10th in ESPN’s pass block win rate (64%), 17th in PFF pass block grade (70.4), 17th in pressure rate allowed (33.8%), and 12th in sack rate (6.0%).
The question that follows is: does it matter? If they’re posting top-five numbers in just about every efficiency metric, does it matter if their pass protection is average?
Detroit’s pass pro should see a bit of a boost this week anyway, with left tackle Taylor Decker expected to return to the lineup this week.
The Bills pass defense has been pretty darn solid all season. They’ve allowed over 250 net yards in just three games this season, and only three opponents have managed a passer rating over 100 against Buffalo. But a closer examination of their opponents reveals an uninspiring list of passing offenses. They have only played a single game against a team ranked in the top-10 in passer rating (Ravens). They’ve played four games against bottom-10 pass offense.
The defense is even more questionable when you look at some of the other important metrics:
In terms of pass rush, it’s a mixed bag. They rank 15th in pass rush win rate (40%), sixth in PFF grade (75.7), but just 19th in pressure rate (32.5%) and 21st in sack rate (6.2%). They only blitz 18.2% of the time (30th), so they often rely on their front four to generate pressure, and that has obviously been an inconsistent strategy.
It’s also worth noting the Bills are a bit banged up in the secondary. Starting cornerback Rasul Douglas has missed both practices this week, while both starting safeties (Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin) missed Thursday’s walkthrough.
Player to watch: Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Bills defense doesn’t give up...
