Detroit Lions’ playoff odds remain reasonable despite Rams loss

The Detroit Lions’ loss to the Los Angeles Rams certainly made a dent in their opportunity to make the playoffs. By some estimations, a win would have put the Lions’ odds well over 60% to make the playoffs—despite the fact that they would be still be in the eighth seed after Week 15.

Now those odds have taken a fairly significant dip. Detroit enters Week 16 two spots out of a playoff spot with only three games remaining. As a reminder, here’s what the NFC playoff picture looks like right now:

Division leaders:

1. Rams: 11-3
2. Bears: 10-4
3. Eagles: 9-5
4. Buccaneers: 7-7

Wild Card race (top three advance)

5. Seahawks: 11-3
6. 49ers: 10-4
7. Packers: 9-4-1
8. Lions: 8-6
9. Panthers: 7-7
10. Cowboys: 6-7-1

Despite the fact that Detroit’s margin for error is basically gone, their playoff odds are actually somewhat reasonable, with the least optimistic probability model putting their odds at 1-in-4.

Lions’ odds to make the playoffs:

New York Times: 25% (-15% from last week)
FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 41.8% (-19.1%)
ESPN: 36% (-19%)
NextGenStats: 40% (-11%)

For a team down two games with three left to play, these odds are pretty high. Obviously, that’s because Detroit can make up one game on the Bears simply by beating them in Week 18. Plus, the Bears have two other difficult games against current playoff teams: the 9-4-1 Packers this week and the 10-4 49ers the following week.

Detroit’s other most likely path to the playoffs involves jumping the Packers, who just lost key defender Micah Parsons for the season. They play the Bears, Ravens, and Vikings to finish out the season. If they lose two of those games, Detroit would jump them with a 3-0 finish to the season.

That said, the odds for both the Packers and Bears to make a postseason appearance remain very high.

Bears playoff odds:

New York Times: 85%
FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 77.9%
ESPN: 75%
NextGenStats: 74%

Packers playoff odds:

New York Times: 91%
FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 84.7%
ESPN: 91%
NextGenStats: 88%

Odds to win NFC North

New York Times: 5% (-1%)
FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 9.5% (-0.4%)
ESPN: 6% (-3%)

The Lions’ path to their third-straight division title is relatively simple:

• Lions finish 3-0
• Bears lose to either the Packers or 49ers
• Packers lose two of their remaining three games (Bears, Ravens, 49ers)

It’s possible, but not probable.

Super Bowl odds

New York Times:

• <1% to win the Super Bowl

FTN Fantasy (DVOA):

• 3.7% (-2.7%) to appear in the Super Bowl
• 2.3% (-2.0%) to win the Super Bowl

ESPN:

• 4% (-3%) to make the Super Bowl

It’s not quite “maybe next year” season, but we’re getting close.