Stampede Blue
Earlier this season, I wrote that Daniel Jones was playing himself into a massive new contract. He was on a one-year, $14 million deal and had completely transformed the Colts’ offense, turning them into one of the most efficient scoring units in the league. Based on the level he was playing at, I projected that Jones could realistically command a long-term contract in the range of $40-45 million per year, potentially on a 3- to 4-year deal, depending on how aggressive a team wanted to be. I laid out several contract structures, but the idea was simple: if he kept performing the way he was, Jones was heading toward a legitimate franchise-quarterback payday.
That projection has changed dramatically.
Jones’ torn Achilles is now the central variable in his contract discussion, and it’s impossible to ignore how much it alters his market. An Achilles tear is one of the toughest injuries for a quarterback to return from — it impacts mobility, footwork, timing, and the ability to generate torque on throws. Even in the most optimistic scenario, Jones won’t be fully healthy until around training camp, and that timeline alone makes it difficult for teams to confidently commit long-term money. The injury doesn’t erase the great football he played in 2025, but it absolutely changes how teams will value him going forward.
Because of that, the chances of Jones getting a four- or five-year deal — something that felt possible before the injury — are essentially gone. Instead, he’s almost certainly looking at a short-term contract, likely no more than three years, and even that would come with heavy team protections. And while I previously projected his value at around $40 million per season, the injury will shave that number down by several million. Something in the low-to-mid $30 million range — around $32M per year — now looks far more realistic.
But even at that reduced number, signing Jones won’t be simple. A team interested in him will still need at least $25 million in cap space just to fit the first year of that contract, even if it’s backloaded. That narrows the list of realistic suitors considerably, especially in a league where only a handful of teams will be actively searching for a quarterback and several of them are positioned to draft rookies early.
So Jones’ situation is now defined by two conflicting truths: he played well enough to earn real money, but the combination of a major injury and a limited quarterback market may restrict both his options and his leverage. Instead of entering free agency as one of the hottest names on the market, he now faces a far more complicated path — one that will likely result in a shorter deal, a lower annual value, and a smaller pool of teams capable of signing him.
Now that we have a baseline cost, it’s time to look at which teams will actually be shopping for a quarterback next year:
