Buffalo Rumblings
Jackson Hawes is a popular man these days. Amongst fans and film watchers alike, the Buffalo Bills rookie tight end is drawing rave reviews for his blocking on the field this season while making a smattering of big plays in the passing game.
Hawes caught his first touchdown this past week as the Bills beat the Miami Dolphins, and wide receiver Keon Coleman made sure that football was collected for him. Based on the reaction to Hawes from Bills Mafia, someone else may have valued that first touchdown reception.
And while that’s for good reason, there’s another Bills tight end generating positive reviews through the first three games of the season. Former first-round pick Dalton Kincaid has led the team in receptions two out of the first three games of the season and has connected with quarterback Josh Allen down the field more than he did in 2024 — when Kincaid was one of the least-assisted pass catchers in football with deep catchable targets. Kincaid second in the NFL among pass catchers (not just tight ends) in passer rating when targeted so far in 2025 (minimum of 60 routes, three games and 10 targets).
Buffalo’s tight ends, as a unit, are the talk of the town. But what if the rise of Dalton Kincaid is actually somewhat related to the Bills’ selection and subsequent usage of Jackson Hawes?
One of the things that’s been established in the early parts of the 2025 season with Buffalo’s offense is that the presence of a sixth offensive lineman, a staple with the team over the last few years, isn’t as prominent as it was. The Bills are sixth in the NFL in 13 personnel usage according to SumerSports (9.22%), a significant jump from 2024 where they were 19th in the league in percentage of plays with three tight ends on the field (2.15%).
If Buffalo was using 13 personnel almost five times more often than last year without results, there would likely be some questions. But their EPA per pass out of 13 personnel is a staggering 1.03. To put that into perspective, Josh Allen has an EPA per play of 0.369 so far in 2025.
The Bills, when passing out of 13 personnel so far this season, are three times are effective as Josh Allen is overall on a play by play basis.
The seemingly obvious thought when it comes to heavier personnel groupings in the NFL is that a team would go into them in order to get bigger bodies assisting in the running game. Although it might appear counterintuitive, teams go heavy to pass and light to run, not the other way around. That’s reflected in teams like the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers consistently generated big plays in the passing game out of heavier personnel historically. But the Bills are following suit now behind the acquisition of Hawes. He may not be the most naturally gifted pass catcher at the tight end position, but it’s certainly a different...
