Hogs Haven
Washington Post (paywall)
Despite the positive disparity this week, the Commanders’ schedule this season ranks 30th in net rest edge, with a combined 13 fewer rest days than their opponents. That number is skewed, in large part, by the fact that they play on regular rest against three teams coming off byes: Chicago (Week 6), Seattle (Week 9) and the New York Giants (Week 15). The Raiders, for what it’s worth, rank last in net rest edge.
Sharp uses terms such as fairness and equity because he said his data shows that, over the past decade, road teams on short weeks have fared worse against the spread, particularly late in the season. (It is unclear whether or how oddsmakers might be factoring in the idea of rest advantage, which theoretically could alter betting lines.)
There is also no clear correlation between rest advantage and winning, a Washington Post analysis found. Since 2010, there have been nearly 1,000 regular season games in which a team had a rest advantage of between one and four days compared with its opponent, according to team schedules archived on Sports-Reference.com. However, the team with the extra time to prepare lost those games 50.3 percent of the time, indicating it did not substantially affect the outcomes.
NFL senior director of football data and analytics Mike Lopez and senior manager of football data and analytics Tom Bliss reached a similar conclusion in a study published last fall — and cited a change in the league’s collective bargaining agreement with the NFL Players Association that imposes strict limits on practicing after early games.
Teams that play on Thursday, for instance, are required by the CBA to give their players the next three days off, as the Commanders did last week.
A to Z Sports
Losing your starting quarterback for a game isn’t ideal, and losing two big pieces on offense just makes it worse, but that’s what the Commanders will have to deal with on Sunday with tight end John Bates and wide receiver Noah Brown officially out.
Bates has been one of the best blocking tight ends in the league, and he is needed in a big way with the offensive line struggling on the right side. The Commanders already announced that Andrew Wylie would start over Nick Allegretti at right guard, but the rookie right tackle, Josh Conerly Jr, really needs those chips and double teams from Bates as well. The offense needs to establish the run as well, and that’s where Bates thrives, as he often opens up lanes and seals the edge for running backs.
Brown has been a solid wide receiver for the Commanders, and doesn’t have much production this season, but the offense has struggled to get the passing game going, and they can’t afford to lose a veteran piece like him....
