Blogging The Boys
The Cowboys got back into the win column last week, thoroughly beating the Raiders on Monday Night Football. Now, they’ve got a golden opportunity to get back to .500 and launch themselves back into the divisional race, playing host to the NFC East frontrunner Eagles.
These two teams kicked off their season against each other, and Dallas lost by just one score in Philadelphia. Can they end up on the right side this time around? Our writers are unsure.
Contain Jalen Hurts
The Eagles offense is in a funk. Over the last three weeks, they’re 28th in EPA/play and 31st in success rate. The run game has also been anemic all year: Philadelphia is getting stuffed at the third-highest rate and Saquon Barkley’s 2.7 yards after contact per attempt is the second-worst among qualifying running backs.
That’s put more pressure on Jalen Hurts, who’s produced a mixed bag. Over the last three weeks, Hurts has been more willing to test defenses deep, averaging 11.1 air yards per attempt. However, he’s also posting a -5.7 completion percentage over expected and hitting just 58% of his passes. That said, Hurts remains a scrambling threat and his newfound focus on the deep shot should be concerning to Matt Eberflus.
Stretch the field
Vic Fangio’s defense is fundamentally built around taking away the deep play. He’ll play with two deep safeties and ask his players to keep things in front of them, playing downhill to make plays after the catch. As a result, they’re one of the best teams in that regard, ranking 12th in EPA/play allowed on passes of 20+ air yards.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys are one of the better deep passing teams in the league, ranking eighth in EPA/play on passes of 20+ air yards. Only four quarterbacks have more completions on deep shots this year than Dak Prescott too; George Pickens, specifically, is posting a ridiculous 125.4 passer rating when targeted on such deep passes. The Cowboys had some success stretching the field against the Eagles in Week 1, but Prescott’s chemistry with Pickens has hit another level since then. Creating space underneath is going to be key for moving the ball in this one, both by air and by ground.
Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers…
Tom Ryle (4-5-1):
Ugh. I feel foolish, but…
Cowboys 24, Eagles 20
Mike Poland (5-4-1):
This is a game I’m personally attending, so they better win. For all the hype on the Eagles defense what is surprising is that they rank 19th in Pass-rush win-rate, and 24th in run-stop win-rate. Against a Cowboys offensive line that ranks 10th in pass-block win-rate and 13th in run-block win-rate, this puts Dallas in the driver seat in an area of the game that can tilt this matchup.
For those worried about that pesky running game the Eagles have. They rank 29th in rushing yards per game on...
