Blogging The Boys
The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a disappointing performance last week against the Carolina Panthers, one that’s reignited the discourse on defense and ratcheted it up to 11. However, they have to pull things together this week as they host the Washington Commanders, where a win would place them in second place in the NFC East.
Right now, Dallas is a slight favorite, by just 1.5 points. That’s largely due to two receivers’ injury statuses: CeeDee Lamb is making his return, while Terry McLaurin will be out for the Commanders. Is that really enough to swing things in the Cowboys’ favor? Our writers have differing opinions.
Keep Jayden Daniels in the pocket
Jayden Daniels was a phenom last year as a rookie. So far this year, it hasn’t been the same rousing success, but Daniels has still been productive. However, his biggest weapon remains his mobility. Whether it’s throwing dimes from outside the pocket or tucking and running, Daniels is at his best when moving around.
The best defenses have managed to have success by keeping him hemmed into the pocket. One way this has been accomplished is with well-timed blitzes and defensive ends that keep contain, rather than just trying to rush the passer. When facing a blitz, for example, Daniels is 26th in EPA/dropback. Matt Eberflus isn’t typically a blitzer, but that’s what needs to be done in order to stop this offense.
Air it out
The Cowboys have one of the most dominant offenses in the league right now without CeeDee Lamb. Now, they get the All Pro back (along with KaVontae Turpin, who’s no slouch either) to upgrade an already stellar unit. The Cowboys should have success on the ground – Dan Quinn’s defense is still fairly susceptible to the run game – but the air is where they’ll really have an advantage.
Coming into this game, Washington is 20th in EPA/dropback and giving up the sixth-most yards per pass; they’re also surrendering the fifth-most yards after the catch. Quinn and Joe Whitt Jr. have relied heavily on the blitz – 10th in blitz rate – and it’s bitten them. Dak Prescott is firing on all cylinders, but he’s especially great against the blitz. A pass-happy approach in this one would make lots of sense.
Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers…
Tom Ryle (3-2-1):
I am concerned the Cowboys are on a downward slide, but things are kinda wonky across the league. Still, it seems unlikely the defense can sort things out.
Commanders 37, Cowboys 33.
Matt Holleran (4-1-1):
It’s hard to say a Week Seven game is a make-or-break matchup, but that’s exactly what this Sunday is for the Dallas Cowboys. If they win, there is still a plausible path for them to be a playoff team. If they lose, it’s time to turn their focus towards the 2026 season.
I have plenty of confidence...
