ClutchPoints
Sunday night was supposed to be the Dallas Cowboys’ last stand. It was their chance to keep faint playoff hopes alive under the bright lights of AT&T Stadium. Instead, it became the moment their season officially slipped away. In a 34-26 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football in Week 15, Dallas lost control of its destiny and perhaps its entire postseason vision. The result stung and mathematically buried the Cowboys in a crowded NFC field that has no room for another misstep.
The Vikings prevailed in a back-and-forth Week 15 clash that felt tight early but tilted decisively in the second half. Dallas struck first with creativity. They opened the scoring via a successful fake field goal and added a Javonte Williams touchdown run to build early momentum. Minnesota never flinched, though. Quarterback JJ McCarthy delivered one of the most complete performances of his season. He threw for 250 yards with two touchdown passes to Jalen Nailor and adding a rushing touchdown of his own on a fourth-down sneak.
The game was tied 17-17 at halftime, but the Vikings steadily pulled away after the break. They exploited Dallas’ defensive breakdowns and won situational football. Minnesota converted key third downs and leaned on balance. They kept pressure on a Cowboys offense that repeatedly stalled in the red zone. By the time Will Reichard drilled a 53-yard field goal to seal the win late, the outcome felt inevitable.
The loss dropped Dallas to 6-7-1. It tells the story of a season defined by missed chances. The Cowboys converted just two touchdowns on five red-zone trips. They were undone by an unusually poor night from kicker Brandon Aubrey. He missed two field goals, including a 59-yarder that would have tied the game late. Dak Prescott was held without a touchdown pass for only the third time this season.
Defensively, the Cowboys simply could not rise to the occasion. What began as a promising night with an early interception and a forced punt just quickly unraveled. Minnesota scored on three straight possessions following that opening stand and only punted once more the rest of the game. The Vikings’ offense, which had been inconsistent at times this season, looked comfortable and in control against a Dallas unit that struggled at every level.
Here we’ll try to look at and discuss the Dallas Cowboys’ playoff chances and their updated odds after their week 15 win over the Vikings.
With the defeat, Dallas’ playoff odds have cratered to near zero. Updated projections now give the Cowboys less than a one-percent chance to qualify for the postseason. They basically have over a 99-percent probability of missing the playoffs entirely, according to calculations from The Athletic. There is no remaining path to the NFC’s top seed and no scenario where Dallas hosts a playoff game. They also have virtually no Wild Card route that doesn’t require chaos bordering on the absurd.
Even optimistic models that...
