Blogging The Boys
The 2025 NFL season is slowly, but inevitably, getting closer. The pace is too slow for most NFL fans, but the laws of nature still prevail and the earth’s rotation is fixed. So wait we must.
While waiting, let’s take a look at some gambling odds for the upcoming season. Today we are going to focus on FanDuel’s odds on teams making the playoffs. Of course we’re going to focus on the Dallas Cowboys in this respect, and their odds aren’t good.
They are listed as the 23rd most-likely team to make the playoffs at a payout of +194 (basically the higher the payout, the lower the chance of it happening, you can find an explanation here). Only 14 teams make the NFL playoffs, so the implication is that the Cowboys are likely far from returning to the tournament. Honestly, those odds feel low.
Just take a look at some teams that have better odds. The Chicago Bears at +184. The New England Patriots at +164. And the Jacksonville Jaguars at +172.
Maybe I’m just wearing blue & silver colored glasses, but I’m taking the Cowboys over those teams. The Bears went 5-12 last season. The Patriots were 4-13, as were the Jaguars.
Last year the Cowboys had a disaster season. Their issues started in the offseason when the Jones Clan decided to basically acquire no talent except through the draft. It was a new level of futility, even for the Cowboys. They also hired Mike Zimmer, who has a defensive scheme that is notorious for being hard to get right quickly, and usually takes half a season or so to get fully installed. Sure enough, the Cowboys defense was atrocious early on.
You also had Mike McCarthy, who seemed to be running on fumes, using an offense that certainly was not among the more cutting-edge units in the league. Then the injuries hit; Dak Prescott missed half the season. Micah Parsons sat out some games. Other stars were either lost or sidelined for large portions of the year.
Frankly, it was a confluence of self-inflicted wounds and things that were out of their control. And they still went 7-10.
Then there is the QB test. If you didn’t know, the NFL is a QB league, plain and simple. Yes, the occasional odd team can succeed while masking their QBs issues, but in general teams go as their QBs go. No disrespect to Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Trevor Lawrence, but most NFL observers would trust Prescott over that trio. Williams and Maye could break out this year, but that’s always a huge gamble. Lawrence is a little bit more experienced but has had trouble putting together consistent play. Prescott came in second in the NFL MVP voting in 2023. There is a difference.
You can certainly make the case that the Cowboys are more likely to miss the playoffs than make it, especially with Philadelphia and Washington in the division. Division and conference can influence who has a better...
