Cowboys playoff chances: Dallas has uphill battle, but hope nonetheless

The Dallas Cowboys were victorious on Monday night against the Las Vegas Raiders. It was “only” one win and was “just the Raiders”, but winning feels good and makes the sun shine a little bit brighter.

Something that is often more visible as a result of that sunlight is the box where we keep discussions about the playoffs. In times like these it feels less ridiculous to open it and poke around, but we can obviously do so with the context that the situation for Dallas is dire right now.

Here is the state of the NFC Playoff Picture at the moment.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
2. Los Angeles Rams (8-2)
3. Chicago Bears (7-3)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)
5. Seattle Seahawks (7-3)
6. Green Bay Packers (6-3-1)
7. San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
8. Detroit Lions (6-4)
9. Carolina Panthers (6-5)
10. Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1)
11. Minnesota Vikings (4-6)

We’ll cut it off there as the next team in question (the Arizona Cardinals who have lost seven of their last eight… you know the one they won) is below four wins. That feels fair and logical.

In order for the Cowboys to reach the postseason they would either have to (just laying things out) win the NFC East or fill one of the three Wild Card spots that the NFC has to offer. Given that the Eagles have twice as many wins as the Cowboys right now, the division feels like an extreme long shot and in that sense is not really worth exploring.

The most likely path to the playoffs for the Cowboys (based on the huge hypothetical of them reaching the postseason) is as a Wild Card. Understanding this we can see that right now the 49ers hold the final one and have a 7-4 record to Dallas’ 4-5-1 mark.

Here are the remaining games for the Cowboys:

• Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
• Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)
• at Detroit Lions (6-4)
• Minnesota Vikings (4-6)
• Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
• at Washington Commanders (3-8)
• at New York Giants (2-9)

Let’s say the Cowboys can get to nine wins on the season. This is admittedly very optimistic, but it is going to in all likelihood take at least nine wins for the playoffs to be a possibility.

This scenario would involve the 49ers and/or Seahawks only winning two more times across the rest of the season. The same can be said for the Packers as their record is most comparable to the Cowboys given that the teams tied with one another.

Is this possible? If so, it seems most likely by way of the Packers. Consider their remaining schedule.

• Minnesota Vikings (4-6)
• at Detroit Lions (6-4)
• Chicago Bears (7-3)
• at Denver Broncos (9-2)
• at Chicago Bears (7-3)
• Baltimore Ravens (5-5)
• at Minnesota Vikings (4-6)

There are a handful of games within the division left, and the ones that are not are against the top seed in the AFC...