Blogging The Boys
What Dallas needs to do to push their winning streak to four games.
The Dallas Cowboys enter Week 14 with momentum and an identity that has sharpened over the past month. Winners of three straight, they now face a Detroit Lions team built on physicality, heavy man coverage, and a YAC-driven offense that punishes poor tackling.
For Dallas, the path to victory will come down to whether they can impose their strengths against a Lions team that is looking to keep its sudden stumbling post season hopes alive.
Here are the three defining factors that will shape Thursday night in Detroit.
The following numbers were obtained through Next Gen Stats.
Winning perimeter matchups vs. Detroit’s Man Coverage
The Lions play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (44.6%), crowding receivers at the line and forcing quarterbacks to make precise, contested throws. It’s an aggressive approach, and it’s one the Cowboys are uniquely equipped to beat.
Dak Prescott leads the league in tight window throw rate, targeting receivers with less than a yard of separation on 19% of his attempts. Not only does he take those shots, but he also completes them at a top five rate.
George Pickens has been his most lethal weapon in these moments, leading the NFL in both tight window receiving yards (294) and yards versus man coverage (504). Against press specifically, Pickens has been elite, generating 432 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 3.2 yards per route, second-best in the league.
The Cowboys also unlock explosive plays by keeping Pickens and CeeDee Lamb isolated on opposite sides of the formation. When deployed that way, they average 7.8 yards per play, compared to 5.3 when aligned together. Add in Dak’s 78% completion rate on play-action and his elite efficiency versus the blitz, important against a Detroit defense that blitzes at a top 10 rate, and Dallas holds a clear schematic advantage.
Also worth noting, that Lamb leads all WR’s in DPI calls with 10, while Pickens is tied for fourth with five.
If the Cowboys consistently win on the outside, Detroit’s identity begins to crack.
Trevon Diggs won’t play after positive signs, and Tyler Guyton will miss his third game of the season.
The return of Trevon Diggs will have to wait for the Dallas Cowboys.
Despite anticipation the the former All-Pro cornerback would return to the field Thursday against the Detroit Lions, he was ruled out by the Cowboys on the team’s final injury report Wednesday afternoon.
Diggs has missed the last six games with knee soreness/swelling and a concussion. He’s still on injured reserve but is in the early stages of a 21-day practice window.
Diggs will now have a full...
