Blogging The Boys
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There is a lot of excitement building for how Brian Schottenheimer’s offense will look at training camp, but so much of it still comes down to how much Dallas improves the running game.
It appears teams that ran the ball well had an inside track on the postseason. So, the Dallas Cowboys just need to run the ball more in 2025 to increase their playoff odds, right?
Not so fast. Running the ball for the sake of running ball does little good for a team’s playoff hopes. In fact, an inefficient ground game comes at the opportunity cost of a more efficient passing game. Stubborn play calling would then actually hurt a team’s playoff chances.
Rushing the ball is a tried-and-true pathway to success, provided it’s efficient enough to warrant its heavy usage. Additionally, “heavy usage” doesn’t mean it’s now more predominant than the passing game or even balanced with the passing game. It just means it’s carved out a bigger role than what has been typical in recent years.
Based on nfelo numbers for 2024, the Eagles had the highest pass rate in the NFL. Given their success on the ground, it’s hard to fault them for it. Philadelphia averaged +0.056 EPA rushing compared to +0.165 EPA passing. Passing was still more efficient, but the margin was narrower than most teams.
Since situations typically dictate run-pass play calling on third downs, RBSDM calculates early-down balance separately. On early downs the Packers and Eagles led the NFL in rushing rate (57.3 and 53.7 respectively). As one may surmise, both teams were extremely successful rushing it on early downs, thus justifying its abnormal usage.
The next three teams on the list are evidence that it’s an efficient rushing attack that leads to success instead of simply rushing for the sake of rushing. Tennessee, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh finished third, fourth and fifth in early down rushing rate. They didn’t rush because they were good at it but rather, they rushed because their quarterback play was abysmal, offering negative EPA output through the air. This is a situation a healthy Dak Prescott-led offense has never had since the Cowboys’ passing game has always ranked among league leaders in EPA efficiency.
The Cowboys offense getting their best play makers the ball in a wider variety of ways has been a long time coming, with that pressure now squarely on a first-year head coach.
Nick: I think you’re going to see this team run the football a lot more. Yeah, we’ve heard that before with Mike McCarthy but even his track record didn’t suggest that he’d call the plays to run the ball a lot. And that’s pretty much how it turned out as...
