Blogging The Boys
The Cowboys have been on a tear lately, winning three straight and upsetting the two teams from last year’s Super Bowl in the process. Next up on their quest to prove themselves worthy of the postseason is a Thursday night road trip to Detroit to take on the Lions.
Detroit has stumbled as of late, while Dallas is surging. That’s reflected in the Lions being favored by a field goal as the home team, effectively making this an even matchup. That feeling is shared by our writers, who are struggling to safeguard against the optimism running rampant in Cowboys Nation.
Stop. The. Run.
The offense has been inconsistent for the Lions, both before and after Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties. But their identity has remained the same: run the ball. Detroit’s offensive line isn’t quite what it has been, but they’re still paving the road regularly, as the Lions are second in the league in both yards per carry and yards before contact per carry.
That has to be a point of emphasis for Dallas, whose run defense is giving up the sixth-most yards before contact per attempt this year. Campbell wants to run you over, and the Cowboys have obliged all too often this season, even with Quinnen Williams in town. Expect to see Matt Eberflus utilize more five man fronts than he already has to get Williams, Osa Odighizuwa, and Kenny Clark out there.
Air it out
Defense has been the more consistent part of the Lions this year, but they still have their moments where they struggle. The pass rush looks good on paper, ranking fifth in pressure rate, but Aidan Hutchinson is doing the majority of the heavy lifting there. Only one other defender has 20+ pressures on the year; for context, Dallas has seven players with 20+ pressures.
Detroit is also giving up the fifth-most EPA/play on passes of 20+ yards down the field, which should be of some concern when facing George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. If the Cowboys can limit Hutchinson’s impact, there will be plenty of opportunities for Dak Prescott to carve up this secondary with the weaponry he has on hand.
Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers…
Tom Ryle (6-5-1):
It certainly feels like the two teams are heading in opposite directions.
Cowboys 27, Lions 23.
Mike Poland (7-4-1):
The Cowboys are on a three-game winning streak and handled taking on two consecutive Super Bowl winners on a short week. The Cowboys defense is catching up, the offense is running wild and arrows are pointing up. Detroit is coming off a loss in Green Bay and has won only two out of their last five games. The two games they have won in that time has been the Giants and Commanders that combine for five total wins on the season.
Is this an easy game for Dallas? Heck no, but...
