Blogging The Boys
Can inconsistency be consistent? The Cowboys are certainly trying to find that out. They still have yet to win (or lose) consecutive games this season after getting blown out by the Broncos in Denver. The loss seemed to obliterate any and all optimism that was growing, as has been the case every other week this season.
As always, we look to the emotionless data to help offer guidance on this confusing, confounding, and contradictory Cowboys team. Let’s dive into some analytics.
The Cowboys dropped all the way from ninth in total team efficiency to 20th. That’s the biggest movement of the week, by far. A lot of that had to do with the defense, which had been on the upswing, getting ripped apart by a Broncos offense that was gravitating towards the lower half of the league in efficiency coming into the game.
Something that also bears mentioning: special teams is an issue. Brandon Aubrey and KaVontae Turpin cover up a lot, but Nick Sorensen’s unit is wildly undisciplined. Dallas is just one flag away from being the most penalized special teams group in the league, and they’re dead last in hidden points, a measurement that estimates points of field position gained by the opponent. This unit is a ticking time bomb right now.
In a just world, the Cowboys would see their logo clumped right in there with the Chiefs, Bills, Packers, and Colts. Their offense is certainly good enough to be there, and their defense has generally been good enough in years past. I wonder if Green Bay feels like there’s anything or anyone who’s helped their defense get into that upper echelon?
All snide remarks aside, this chart really lays the Cowboys’ problems bare. The defense is what’s keeping them from being one of the best teams in the league, but it’s not just bad, it’s like an anchor tied around Dak Prescott’s neck. Even average defensive play would put them firmly in the playoff hunt, but that feels like a more unreasonable ask with each passing week.
The offense took a step back, and rightfully so. Their performance against the Broncos was objectively bad, with hardly any positives to take away. However, a reason they don’t drop more dramatically is because the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league, which is something that has to be taken into consideration.
On the whole, this offense is still in very good shape. They won’t face another top 10 defense (by DVOA) until Thanksgiving, and that’s at least in AT&T Stadium, where they’ve crossed 40 points every game so far. It’s a momentary bruise on the ego, but the offense should get back to its high-flying ways as soon as Monday.
Dak Prescott had his first bad game of the year, and boy was it a stinker. For the first time since Week 1 – which was impacted by the drops from CeeDee Lamb – he posted a negative completion percentage over expected (CPOE)....
