Blogging The Boys
It’s a weird week when the most exciting football game the NFL had to offer featured two teams that walked away without a win. Yet, that’s the case after a thrilling tie (an oxymoron if there ever was one) between the Cowboys and Packers, one that’s prompting a sense of optimism in Dallas.
How warranted is that optimism? Let’s take a dive into the advanced data around this team, which reveals a sort of Jekyll and Hyde factor that’s marred the Cowboys’ season to this point.
Offense and special teams are doing amazing. The latter isn’t the least bit surprising, as Brandon Aubrey and KaVontae Turpin are the best in the league at their respective roles, and a blocked extra point returned for two points boosts the efficiency numbers. The offense is perhaps a bigger surprise, but still encouraging.
The defense, though… woof. How bad is this defense? So bad that the Cowboys’ overall efficiency grade ranks them as the 22nd best team in the league despite their offense and special teams being fifth. That’s a step up from last week, so baby steps are apparently in order for Matt Eberflus.
Pivoting to the EPA-based team tiers, the story is pretty much the same. The defense saw a slight uptick in their EPA/play allowed, if you can believe it, but they’re still languishing at the bottom. The offense moves further to the right, establishing themselves as one of the league’s best even with CeeDee Lamb on the sideline.
Speaking of…
Who would have thought the Cowboys offense would actually improve in virtually every efficiency metric in their first game without Lamb, who’s sidelined with a high ankle sprain? That’s exactly what they did, with the passing game making a huge leap thanks to some really intuitive play-calling from Brian Schottenheimer.
Meanwhile, the run game is officially for real in Dallas. Javonte Williams is fifth in yards after contact per attempt and still leads the league in rush success rate. After years of the Cowboys never knowing when they could rely on the ground game, Schottenheimer has answered every question through four weeks.
It’s officially time to start the Dak Prescott MVP train, y’all. Yes, it’s early, but Prescott is playing out of his mind right now. He currently leads the league in passing yards while sitting third in completion rate, and he’s tied with Matthew Stafford for most big time throws in the league. Just look at how he’s handling pressure versus the rest of the league right now:
This week, with Lamb on the sideline, he posted a 124.9 passer rating and a 0.536 EPA/play, both of which ranked third in the league for the week. Given the supporting cast he had, and the defense he was facing, that’s pretty darn impressive. If Prescott continues to play like this, he’ll be the MVP frontrunner in no time.
Going back to that graphic about Prescott under pressure for a moment, the quarterback has a 9.2% pressure to sack...
