Blogging The Boys
The first week of the 2025 season is in the books, and so too is the first week of data from those games. The Cowboys may have lost to the Eagles, but there were several encouraging things to take from it, along with some areas for obvious improvement. In an effort to table the Kool-Aid for a moment, let’s dive into the first Cowboys analytics roundup of the new year and get a sense for what this team actually is right now.
First, let’s start with a caveat: we are dealing with very small sample sizes right now. Any data will be skewed right now, and any DVOA-based grades in particular are not yet operating with any sort of adjustments for strength of schedule. That said, there is still some value to be gleaned rom these metrics.
The headline here is that the Cowboys grade out as the 14th best team in the league right now. Given all the changes in the offseason, along with the trade of Micah Parsons right before things started, most fans will take that. After one week of games, the Cowboys are buoyed by their offense and held down by their defense, which is unsurprising for several reasons.
DAVE, which combines actual DVOA results with DVOA-based preseason projections, offers a good comparison for where the team should be right now. The offense is way ahead of schedule, while the defense turned out to be a bit worse than expected. All in all, these metrics reflect that the Cowboys played better than expected last Thursday night.
Pivoting to our EPA-based team tiers, the Cowboys find themselves right around the same area as their DVOA ranking. They’re one of many teams in the bottom right quadrant – which is where teams end up when they’re good on offense and bad on defense – but not so far from the average lines that they can’t move into the ideal upper right quadrant in a couple weeks.
Let’s start with the good: the offense looked great. Brian Schottenheimer called a beautiful offense, using plenty of motion and taking deep shots regularly. The influence of offensive coordinator Klayton Adams was felt, as many of their counter run plays broke for highly efficient gains.
The Cowboys finished in the top 10 in rushing efficiency by both DVOA and EPA. They were also third in rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per carry and second in rushing success rate. It’s only one game, and it came against a defense that unexpectedly lost Jalen Carter, but that’s a good first step for the run game.
This game offered a fascinating case study in why advanced statistics must be measured with game film. By nost accounts, Dak Prescott played a great game against the Eagles, but his numbers – 188 passing yards on 61.8% completion rate – were unimpressive. His lack of touchdowns also negatively impacted his efficiency grades.
We also know that CeeDee Lamb had four crucial dropped passes that, if caught,...
