Blogging The Boys
The Dallas Cowboys had a brief moment where they had tricked everyone into thinking they were becoming some unstoppable force. Reality crashed into them against the Lions on Thursday night, but it doesn’t take away from the positives this team has actually exhibited as of late. Lets dive into the analytics as we prepare for one final playoff push.
The Cowboys are the 19th best team by DVOA, which feels about right. With 14 teams making the playoffs, that means they’re just on the outside of that threshold. It’s worth noting that three of their four remaining opponents all rank below them in DVOA, as do two of the teams ahead of them in the conference standings.
Let’s highlight special teams real quick, because it’s been bad. Not only is Dallas third in special teams penalties, but they’re also 25th in hidden points, a DVOA metric that measures the advantage gained by the opponent’s special teams unit. Things like average starting field position and penalties are big there, and it paints a picture of how bad Nick Sorensen’s unit has been outside of his two star players.
The Cowboys remain firmly in the bottom right of the team tiers chart, which just reinforces what we’ve known about this team all year long: really good offense, really bad defense. Again, though, three of their four opponents are far behind them here; the one outlier, the Chargers, are nearly even with Dallas in total EPA, albeit with a better defense and worse offense.
The Cowboys didn’t have their best offensive performance this past week, with turnovers looming large, but they remain inside the top 10 in most metrics. That’s a testament to how efficient this unit has been all season long. One thing to note: the run game has fallen off a bit recently. Javonte Williams is still playing well, but he hasn’t been the missed tackle machine he was earlier in the year.
Dak Prescott threw two interceptions against the Lions, yes, but both were registered as drops. And 13 games in, only two quarterbacks have had more dropped passes this season, which makes Prescott’s numbers here all the more impressive. He’s having his best season yet, and just needs a defense that can yield fewer than 40 points in a game. Which, apparently, is too much to ask.
Prescott was sacked five times on Thursday, yet his adjusted sack rate only dropped from third to fourth. That highlights how good he’s been at avoiding sacks all year, especially as Dallas has battled through a myriad of injuries along the offensive line.
Yes, the Lions game will drop the Cowboys back towards the cellar on defense, but it doesn’t erase the positive momentum they made before that. Since the trade deadline, Dallas is 20th in EPA/play allowed and 16th in success rate allowed. Neither of those are going to get Matt Eberflus another head coaching gig, but it’s good enough to win the majority of games played....
