Blogging The Boys
The Cowboys got themselves in the win column in Week 2, beating the Giants in overtime in a game that was wildly entertaining television for anyone that wasn’t a fan of these two teams. As for Cowboys fans, how should you be feeling after two games?
Welcome to the second installment of this year’s analytics roundup, in which we’ll seek to answer that very question with hard, unemotional data. Before we dive in, just a reminder that all DVOA-related grades do not yet account for strength of schedule, since it’s too early in the season for that. Similarly, many of these data points are still susceptible to sample size errors, but there’s still value to be pulled from the data.
Let’s dive in!
The Cowboys saw their overall team DVOA grade increase – they were just barely in the negative after Week 1 – but they moved back three spots in the rankings. What does that mean? In short, the Cowboys played more efficiently in Week 2, but other teams made a bigger leap.
Notably, special teams made a significant jump despite accounting for half the team’s penalties. Hitting a 64-yard field goal to force overtime, and then kicking the game-winner, will do that. All hail Brandon Aubrey.
Last week’s look at the EPA-based team tiers highlighted the fact that the Cowboys were in the quadrant that denotes “good offense, bad defense” teams, but with room to move into the top right quadrant. Well, they’ve moved further into their current quadrant, and that’s unsurprising after Sunday’s defensive showing.
Notably, the Cowboys are nearly even with the Commanders in total team EPA/play, and not too far behind the Eagles either. Their next opponent, the Bears, are currently sitting in the worst quadrant and competing vigorously to be the worst team in the league through two weeks.
Here’s the good news: the offense looks to be legit. The only metric in which they don’t currently rank in the top 10 is EPA/dropback, which isn’t too far behind at 11th. The run game had another good performance, and Javonte Williams is looking very, very good.
How good? Williams is currently fifth among all running backs in rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt, and he’s second in EPA/rush. He’s outperforming the league’s best backs, including Falcons star Bijan Robinson and top draft pick Ashton Jeanty. Miles Sanders has been decent, too: his +49 RYOE is second in the league, though his per play numbers are just pedestrian.
Dak Prescott’s game was once again an interesting one to decipher. Last week, drops and a lack of touchdowns hurt his efficiency, but this week Prescott was playing some legitimately poor football. That is, until the fourth quarter started.
To put it into perspective just how Jekyll/Hyde his performance was, Prescott’s EPA/play through the first three quarters was a pedestrian 0.094, good for 17th among quarterbacks. After that, though, he posted an absurd 0.355 EPA/play, fourth-best in that span. Prescott saved his best for...
