Blogging The Boys
As we near the midpoint of the season and the Cowboys sit in second place in the NFC East. And after the Eagles came incredibly close to losing their third consecutive game this weekend, one can envision a world where the Cowboys win this thing. You have to squint, sure, but it’s there.
Is it real, though? The win over the Commanders certainly felt encouraging, but what does the data say? Let’s dive into this week’s analytics roundup, where strength of schedule adjustments are nearly at full strength and resulting in some pretty marginal shifts in the hierarchy of the league.
Yes, that’s the Dallas Cowboys sitting at ninth place in the league in total team efficiency. They’re also sixth among NFC teams, just behind the Commanders in that regard.
The offense predictably jumped up several spots with the return of CeeDee Lamb. They were still doing great in his absence, but it’s obvious they’re a better unit with him out there. And the defense only made a small improvement, but they’re the only unit on this team with any distinction from their weighted DVOA – which puts more emphasis on the most recent games played – and their total DVOA.
The EPA-based team tiers haven’t changed much. The star logo is ever-so-gradually climbing upward, with their offense keeping them far to the right. Interestingly, they’re now in a tier ahead of both the Commanders and Eagles and just slightly ahead of the Broncos, their next opponent, in total EPA.
Here’s a challenge: find something the Cowboys aren’t top five in right now. There are some stats out there, but boy is it tough to find. Brian Schottenheimer has been lightyears ahead of even the most optimistic expectations anyone had for him as a play-caller. He’s even surpassing Mike McCarthy’s stellar 2023 season so far.
That year saw elite passing numbers, not unlike this season, but the run game was much closer to the middle of the pack. The most impressive part about this offense is how balanced it is; the Colts are the only other team right now to be top five in both passing and rushing efficiency according to either DVOA or EPA/play.
Heading into this weekend, the only quarterback who was rivaling Dak Prescott’s gaudy stats was Baker Mayfield, whom many were starting to discuss as an MVP candidate. Well, Mayfield collapsed against the Lions on Monday, while Prescott continued to climb the leaderboards in just about every metric.
He’s still only seventh in MVP betting odds, but the team record has a lot to do with that. Make no mistake: Prescott is playing the best ball of his career, and it’s come in a myriad of ways with several impact players missing key games. What he’s doing is absolutely MVP-worthy right now.
All these numbers are trending in the right direction, especially in pass protection. Prescott has done a lot to help his line out there, especially his tackles, but the offensive line has...
