Blogging The Boys
The Cowboys got back in the win column, and what a way to do it. Their blowout victory on the road over the Jets seems to have inspired some confidence in the team while also soft-launching Dak Prescott’s MVP campaign. Is it all real, though, or just a symptom of facing the Jets, the only team still without a win this season?
As always, let’s turn to the data for some answers. One thing to note on the DVOA-related grades in this week’s roundup: strength of schedule adjustments have kicked in, though they’re not at full strength yet. Similarly, DAVE grades now account for an even split between DVOA-based preseason projections and actual results. As such, this will be our final week tracking DAVE.
Okay, let’s dive in.
The Cowboys made a considerable jump, going from the 22nd best team in overall efficiency to 15th. They’re now one spot ahead of the 49ers, while their next opponent – the Panthers – sit far below at 24th. Thinking about the division, the Eagles sit at 11th following their first loss of the year, while Washington is fifth.
Let’s focus on DAVE for a moment. The overall DAVE grade is ever-so-slightly higher, suggesting that the Cowboys are just barely behind the curve compared to their most analytically inclined expectations. Much of that has to do with the defense, which showed serious improvement this past week. That may hint at what’s to come.
The EPA-based team tiers offer a blunt assessment of this team right now. They have a sensational offense and a really, really bad defense. Again, Matt Eberflus’ side took a step forward, but it wasn’t much compared to the rest of the season thus far.
Notably, though, the Cowboys fall into the same tier here as the Eagles, 49ers, Chargers, Steelers, and other teams widely considered to be in the playoff hunt. The offense is keeping them afloat, and continued growth on defense could send them rocketing up this chart.
For the second week in a row, CeeDee Lamb was inactive as he recovers from his ankle injury. And for the second week in a row, the Cowboys saw all of their offensive efficiency metrics go up. This time, with no KaVontae Turpin either, it was Ryan Flournoy who broke out in the passing game.
The real story, though, is the run game. Dallas now leads the league in rushing efficiency by both DVOA and EPA, a monumental achievement considering where the run game was a year ago at this time. Javonte Williams continues to amaze, as he leads the league in both rushing yards over expected (RYOE) and EPA/rush.
As mentioned earlier, the offense continues to get more efficient even with Lamb on the sidelines, and Dak Prescott is a big part of that. His numbers speak for themselves, but let’s look specifically at how he compares to the rest of the league when under pressure: first in completion rate, first in big time throw rate, second...
