Blogging The Boys
It’s been a long week in Cowboys Nation, and we’re not even a month into the season. The road loss to the previously-winless Bears is going to sting for a while, especially if the Cowboys fall to Micah Parsons and the Packers on Sunday night in prime time. Yet Jerry Jones insists this team is still a playoff team.
Is he right? The odds surely don’t look good, but let’s take a look at what the hard data says. We’re still waiting on strength of schedule adjustments for all DVOA-related grades, but three weeks is a decent enough sample size to start drawing a few conclusions, so let’s dive in.
That bad, huh? The Cowboys dropped six spots in total team DVOA rankings this week. Sitting at 23rd in total team DVOA, they’re also 13th in the NFC, which hardly bodes well for their playoff chances. The good news? The offense is still pretty efficient, even after losing CeeDee Lamb early against Chicago.
The defense, though… we’ll get into more specifics on that later on, but this is a very bad defense. They’re the worst in the NFL, according to DVOA, and it’s hard to argue otherwise.
Pivoting to our EPA-based team tiers, the diagnosis is very similar. The defense is not quite as bad as the Dolphins here, but pretty darn close. Of note: out of the six teams at the bottom of the league in EPA/play allowed, only the Cowboys have won a game. The lone win came, of course, against the Giants.
All things considered, this is a good sign for the offense. They didn’t take a huge step back this week despite throwing three picks and fumbling on the opening drive. That essentially means the offense was moving the ball really well in between those highly inefficient turnover plays.
The run game, in particular, continues to excel. Javonte Williams is eighth in the NFL in rush yards over expected (RYOE) per carry, just narrowly behind Derrick Henry, and ranks third in yards after contact per carry. He also leads the league in rush success rate. The Cowboys had to go away from him last week due to being down several scores, but Williams seems like the key to keeping the offense going in Lamb’s absence.
One reason for the muted decline in efficiency this week is that Dak Prescott did fairly well against the Bears defense, even after losing Lamb. Yes, he threw two interceptions, but one of those was deflected off the hands of George Pickens; to prove that point, Prescott had just one turnover-worthy play all game.
Where Prescott really excelled was completing high-leverage throws. He posted a completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of +10.9 against Chicago, the fourth-highest of any quarterback this past week. Again, that’s with two interceptions and Lamb not registering a single catch. If there’s anything to suggest hope in this passing attack without Lamb, it’s right there.
If there’s anything to disintegrate hope in the passing attack,...
