Gang Green Nation
Ashton Jeanty might buck the trend regarding first round running backs
One of the “enviable” things about the New York Jets draft situation is that their 2024 roster showed that the team had so many holes that just about any position could be argued as worth drafting. This should allow the team to truly go with the “best player available” as no position will be off their board.
The Detroit Lions, who previously employed newly hired New York Jets head coach Aaron Glenn, made it a point to value talent over position. Famously, the Lions drafted a running back in round 1, which is notable given that we’re in an era where many general managers would only do so under duress because of the perceived low value of the position.
That sets up an interesting possibility Lance Zierlein of NFL.com laid out in his last mock draft. What if running back Ashtyn Jeanty from Boise State is the best player on the board when the New York Jets pick? In Zierlein’s mock, that not only happened, but he had the Jets taking the Heisman finalist. Zierlein’s rationale for the pick was as follows:
The analytics community won’t like this pick, but so be it. The Jets have a stagnant attack, and [New York Jets running back] Breece Hall has not reached 1,000 yards rushing in any of his three seasons. Jeanty provides instant adrenaline to the offense and creates buzz in Aaron Glenn’s first season as head coach.
Admittedly, Jeanty is not your typical running back. His statistics from this season really speak for themselves in that regard.
Beyond those video game numbers, advanced statistics also love him, with a missed tackles forced rate of 39.2% in 2024 that outpaced the seasons that preceded going pro for Saquon Barley (32.2%), Christian McCaffrey (21%), Joe Mixon (25.6%), and Breece Hall (30.1) and was comparable to Bijan Robinson (40.4%). Additionally, he outpaced all of these rather elite NFL running backs on yards after contact per rush, with a value of 5.42 yards that was more than a full yard above each of the aforementioned backs.
Really, the only holdup with Jeanty is that he plays running back. What do you think? Is Jeanty the kind of running back that is worth bucking the general rule to not take a running back in round 1?
