Community Tailgate: How High Will RB Market Climb In 2026?

Community Tailgate: How High Will RB Market Climb In 2026?
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Several positions have enjoyed substantial financial growth in recent years. The NFL has seen an ever-increasing emphasis placed on quarterbacks, edge rushers, receivers, offensive and defensive tackles and cornerbacks over time.

On the other hand, other markets have remained quite stagnant. The running back spot represents a clear illustration on that point. In terms of guaranteed money for veteran backs, the list of the most lucrative deals across the NFL’s teams dates as far back as 1997. It has become commonplace in the salary cap era to rely on the value generated through rookie contracts and avoid long-term commitments to all but the elite performers in the backfield.

For now, the top of the RB market sits at $20.6MM per year. Things could change relatively soon thanks to Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, however. The star backs for the Falcons and Lions, respectively, have each played three years in the NFL. The 2023 first-rounders are both on the books through 2027 thanks to their fifth-year options, but Atlanta and Detroit have long been expected to pursue an early extension.

Saquon Barkley landed a lucrative Eagles pact in 2024 and again the following year. His total guarantee figure ($36MM) on the latter accord also leads the way at the running back position amongst veterans. If/when Robinson and Gibbs have their second NFL contracts in hand, though, they could very well move the bar to a new height. At 24, both are much younger than the likes of Barkley, Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry. Those accomplished veterans made up the top three in terms of average annual value until De’Von Achane’s recent Dolphins extension.

Both Robinson and Gibbs have a case to eclipse not only Achane (four years, $64MM) on their second contracts but reset the market as a whole. Detroit has already made numerous big-money commitments on offense recently, but Gibbs is in line to handle an even larger workload than before without David Montgomery in the fold. Robinson, meanwhile, has seen teammates Drake London and Kyle Pitts each sign notable extensions this offseason. Discussions on a new deal of his own have taken place.

Hesitancy on the part of Robinson and Gibbs would be understandable with each waiting for the other to sign. Opinions appear to be split on the question of which should secure more and by doing so (likely) earn the title of the league’s highest-paid back. In any case, another interesting talking point will be the terms of the contracts offered by Atlanta and Detroit.

A recent projection from The Athletic’s Austin Mock has Robinson signing for $21.9MM per year and setting a new mark for RB contracts (aside from Jermiyah Love‘s rookie deal) in terms of guarantees at $52.7MM. The model has Gibbs slotting in behind Robinson and Barkley in terms of AAV ($19.9MM) but in between the two with respect to locked-in compensation ($46.7MM). A deal surpassing $20MM annually has long been mentioned as a strong possibility in both cases, and Mock adds Gibbs is...