Hogs Haven
There are two major themes heading into this afternoon’s game:
It’s been talked about on the broadcast of every Dallas game in recent weeks and mentioned in dozens of articles about the team; Dallas has the best offense in the NFL by many metrics and the worst defense in the league by those same metrics. Without getting fancy, let’s just compare the relative rankings of Washington and Dallas offensively and defensively on two basic metrics: yards per game and points per game.
When it comes to offense, the Dallas offense ranks 1st & 3rd in yards gained and points scored, respectively, while on defense, the Cowboys are ranked 32nd & 31st for yards and points given up to opponents.
Washington, on both offense and defense, is better at scoring points than gaining yards. With respect to points — the most important statistic of all – the commanders are ranked 7th on offense and 13th on defense. By contrast, they rank only 13th in yards gained on offense and a rather dismal-looking 25th in yards given up to opponents on defense. Offensively, this looks like good efficiency while defensively it sounds a little like ‘bend don’t break’, or just being good in the red zone (discussed below).
Dallas at home
When playing in their own stadium, which they’ve done twice in 2025 (Giants, Packers – both overtime games) the Dallas offense has produced more and the defense has given up more — which is not surprising with the two overtime periods, which both lasted the full 10 minutes.
Washington on the road
Washington has played 3 home games and 3 road games this season. Overall, Washington’s offense is earning fewer yards and scoring fewer points on the road than at home. The defense is giving up more yards and points on the road than at home. The Commanders are 2-1 at home and 1-2 on the road.
Looks like a shootout
The two games that Dallas has played at home this season — both ending in overtime — ended with scores of 40-40 and 40-37. It’s very much the nature of the Cowboys’ offensive and defensive performances, and Washington seems equipped to be able to score a lot of points and give up a lot of points. Fan Duel has the over/under on this game at 53.5. I’d probably take the over if the mark was 73.5.
A note on Red Zone scoring
Washington’s defense, which is ranked 25th in yards and 13th in points, must be doing something to impact those two inconsistent rankings.
They are.
The Commanders defense is ranked 10th in red zone scoring percentage (TDs only) at 55%. Only 4 defenses in the league are below 50%. The bad news is that the Washington defense has allowed 67% red zone scoring rate...
