Stampede Blue
This six-part Colts What If series looks back at some of the biggest turning points in franchise history, from the Peyton Manning draft decision to playoff heartbreak, quarterback pivots and coaching chaos, while revisiting what happened, what could have changed, and how different the Colts might look if one major moment had gone the other way.
There are bad draft picks, there are franchise-altering draft picks, and then there is the 1998 NFL Draft.
The Indianapolis Colts had the No. 1 pick and a choice between two quarterbacks: Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf. At the time, it was a legitimate debate. Manning was the polished, prepared, NFL-ready quarterback from Tennessee. Leaf was the bigger arm, bigger personality, bigger swing quarterback from Washington State. There were people who believed Leaf had the higher ceiling. There were people who believed Manning was the safer choice. The Colts had to decide which one would lead their franchise into the future.
They chose Manning.
That decision changed everything.
Manning became the greatest player in franchise history, one of the best quarterbacks ever (in my opinion the greatest ever), a Super Bowl champion in Indianapolis, and the face of the most successful era the Colts have ever had. Leaf became one of the biggest busts in NFL history. It is easy to look back now and treat the decision like it was obvious, but the better question is what would have happened if the Colts got it wrong.
What if they drafted Ryan Leaf instead of Peyton Manning?
The answer is not just that the Colts would have missed on a quarterback. The answer is that the entire modern history of the franchise probably changes.
If the Colts drafted Leaf first overall, he almost certainly would have started early. Teams do not take a quarterback No. 1 overall to sit him for long, especially not a team that had just gone 3-13 and needed a new face of the franchise. Leaf would have been given the job, the offense, and the pressure that came with being the first overall pick.
The problem is that Leaf’s issues were not simply about San Diego.
It is fair to wonder whether a different organization could have helped him more. Maybe Indianapolis gives him better structure. Maybe Bill Polian handles him differently and maybe Jim Mora’s staff creates a different environment. To me, Leaf’s problems were deeper than fit. The maturity issues, the lack of preparation, the emotional volatility and the inability to handle the demands of being a franchise quarterback followed him quickly in the NFL. There is no strong reason to believe Indianapolis magically fixes that.
Maybe the Colts get a slightly better version of Leaf than the Chargers did. Maybe Marvin Harrison and Marshall Faulk early, then Edgerrin James later, help him look more functional at times. But the broader outcome is probably the same. Leaf struggles, the offense becomes unstable, and the Colts...
