Colts What If: What if Mike Vanderjagt made the kick against the Steelers?

Part 1: What If the Colts Drafted Ryan Leaf Over Peyton Manning?

This six-part Colts What If series looks back at some of the biggest turning points in franchise history, from the Peyton Manning draft decision to playoff heartbreak, quarterback pivots and coaching chaos, while revisiting what happened, what could have changed, and how different the Colts might look if one major moment had gone the other way.

For Part 2, there is no better place to go than one of the most painful moments of the Peyton Manning era!

Mike Vanderjagt’s missed field goal against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2005 divisional round has lived in Colts history for nearly two decades. It was a shocking ending to a bizarre game, one that included a massive comeback attempt, a rare Jerome Bettis fumble at the goal line, Nick Harper somehow being one cut away from one of the greatest playoff returns ever, and then the most accurate kicker in NFL history pushing a 46-yard field goal badly wide right.

It is remembered as the kick that ended the Colts’ season, and that is true, but it’s also important to frame the play correctly.

If Vanderjagt makes that kick, the Colts do not beat the Steelers… they tie the game!

That distinction is important because this was not a guaranteed Super Bowl path that disappeared the second the ball missed. The Colts still would have needed to win overtime against a Pittsburgh team that had outplayed them for most of the afternoon. Still, if Indianapolis survives that overtime period, the entire 2005 playoff picture changes, and the Colts likely become the clear favourite to win the Super Bowl.

The first step would have been surviving overtime

The mistake people make with this what-if is jumping straight from “Vanderjagt makes the kick” to “the Colts win the Super Bowl.”

The field goal would have tied the game at 21, sending it to overtime. From there, the Colts still would have needed to beat a Steelers team that had been physical, aggressive and better prepared for most of the game. Pittsburgh had controlled the early stages, pressured Manning, disrupted the timing of the offense and put Indianapolis in a hole that took nearly the entire game to climb out of.

In the sudden-death overtime format of that era, the next part of the story is basically a coin flip. Maybe the Colts win the toss, get the ball, and Manning finally settles into rhythm. Maybe Pittsburgh wins the toss, leans on the run game, and gets one more drive from Ben Roethlisberger. Maybe the Colts defense, which had already survived the Bettis fumble sequence, creates another stop. Maybe Vanderjagt gets another chance. There are too many variables to pretend the result is obvious.

So the fairest starting point is simple: if Vanderjagt makes the kick, the Colts probably have about a 50/50 chance to win the game in overtime.

That might sound conservative, but it keeps the discussion honest. The...