Stampede Blue
This six-part Colts What If series looks back at some of the biggest turning points in franchise history, from the Peyton Manning draft decision to playoff heartbreak, quarterback pivots and coaching chaos, while revisiting what happened, what could have changed, and how different the Colts might look if one major moment had gone the other way.
For Part 5, we go back to Super Bowl XLIV and one of the most famous special teams plays in NFL history.
The Colts led the New Orleans Saints 10-6 at halftime. They had Peyton Manning, a four-point lead, and a chance to open the second half in control of the game. Indianapolis entered that night as the favorite, and through two quarters, the game had largely followed that script. The Saints had moved the ball, but the Colts were ahead, composed and still had the best quarterback in football on their side.
Then Sean Payton called the surprise onside kick.
The ball bounced toward Hank Baskett, he failed to secure it, and New Orleans recovered. A few plays later, the Saints scored a touchdown and took a 13-10 lead. The entire feel of the game changed in one sequence.
That is why this play still hurts. It was not just a strange moment and it was not just a special teams mistake. It was one of the most consequential plays in Super Bowl history because of how much it changed the math, the momentum and the legacy of everyone involved.
The Colts entered Super Bowl XLIV as roughly five-point favorites. The Colts were 14-2, had started the season 14-0 before resting starters late, and had Manning playing at another MVP level.
At halftime, they led by four.
If the Colts were five-point favorites before the game and were up 10-6 at halftime, their live projection was probably stronger than the pregame number. They were ahead, they had already played a half, and they had possession uncertainty about to begin the third quarter. In that spot, Indianapolis was likely closer to a seven-point live favorite, which would put its win probability somewhere around 75 percent.
That is the part people sometimes forget. The Saints were not dead, but they were in trouble. They needed something to change the game. They needed to steal a possession, shift the pressure, and knock the Colts out of rhythm.
And they got exactly that.
If Hank Baskett recovers the onside kick, the Colts likely get the ball near midfield or slightly inside Saints territory while already leading 10-6. With Manning, that is a dream situation.
Even before running a play, that recovery moves the live line another point toward Indianapolis by at least a point. Instead of the Colts being around seven-point favorites, they probably become closer to eight-point favorites, which would put their win probability around 78 percent.
That is already a massive edge in a Super...
