Stampede Blue
This six-part Colts What If series looks back at some of the biggest turning points in franchise history, from the Peyton Manning draft decision to playoff heartbreak, quarterback pivots and coaching chaos, while revisiting what happened, what could have changed, and how different the Colts might look if one major moment had gone the other way.
For the final piece, there was only one place this series could end.
Andrew Luck’s retirement is the biggest what-if in Colts history, and honestly, one of the biggest NFL what-ifs since 2000. Some moments change a game and some change a season. Luck walking away changed the entire direction of a franchise that looked like it was finally ready to start seriously winning again.
That is the part that still hurts.
The Colts were not rebuilding. They were not stuck with an old roster. They were not trying to squeeze one last run out of a fading quarterback. They had just gone 10-6, won a playoff game on the road against the Texans, and had Luck coming off arguably the best season of his career in his first year with Frank Reich. The offensive line had finally been fixed as Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith had arrived, the defense had young talent and the team looked like it had finally escaped the damage of the previous era.
Then Luck retired.
Everything after that has been fallout.
The quarterback carousel, the Philip Rivers bridge year, the Carson Wentz trade, the Matt Ryan trade, the Jeff Saturday hire, the Gardner Minshew stopgap, the Anthony Richardson swing, the Daniel Jones pivot, the endless debate about whether the Colts are good enough, close enough, aggressive enough, or stuck in the middle. It all traces back to the night the franchise lost the one player its entire plan was built around.
Luck did not just retire from the Colts. He retired from the version of the Colts they were supposed to become.
That is what separates Luck’s retirement from almost every other franchise-changing departure.
He did not leave a team that was falling apart. He left a team that was ascending.
In 2018, Luck returned from the shoulder injury that had cost him the entire 2017 season and immediately looked like an elite quarterback again. He threw 39 touchdowns, played efficient football in a new offense, protected himself better, got the ball out quicker, and helped turn a 1-5 start into a playoff run. The Colts beat Houston on the road in the wild-card round and then lost to Kansas City, which felt less like an ending and more like the first step in a bigger climb.
The environment around him had finally changed too. For years, Luck had been asked to survive chaos. He carried bad offensive lines, absorbed brutal hits, played through pain, and was treated like a quarterback talented enough to cover every organizational mistake. By 2018, that was no longer the case. Nelson was an immediate...
