Stampede Blue
Thanks to the nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
Daniel Jones took a step back in Week 4, largely due to a pair of interceptions that dragged down his efficiency. He finished with +0.06 EPA per play, which ranked 18th among quarterbacks—even after I scrubbed out the negative impact of AD Mitchell’s fumble**.**
His 52.8% success rate ranked 12th, which indicates that outside of the turnovers, he played at a fairly solid level. In other words, while the interceptions were disappointing, his down-to-down performance was still encouraging.
A look at the top-4 stats highlights just how costly the interceptions were. Jones finished below average in EPA efficiency, yet remained above average in both play conversions and net yards per play. This was clearly his worst game so far as a Colt, yet even then it wasn’t all that bad.
You can see he relied heavily on short passes, only occasionally mixing in a deep shot. That approach boosted his completion rate and in turn produced a respectable yards per attempt. Short throws are fine—as long as you complete them, and he did.
A handful of deep attempts lifted his average depth of target, but his actual completions came in shorter than league average.
However, on the season he still ranks among the league leaders in completion depth.
Pittman once again led the team in targets, but Warren outpaced him in total yards. Meanwhile, Mitchell delivered the most explosive plays—both positive and negative.
Among the top four in targets are a tight end and a running back, yet it is a wide receiver who leads the way. That balanced mix is encouraging.
Per-target efficiency dipped this week, with Pittman finishing below the league-average mark.
However, on the season, everyone is in positive territory—well, almost everyone.
Jones’ completion rate and accuracy remain high, reminiscent of his efficient 2022 season with the Giants.
His time to throw has been steady, hovering around league average. Given that he pushes the ball deeper than most quarterbacks, it suggests he’s processing the game faster than many of his peers.
The deep ball wasn’t there this week, but he consistently found success on throws within 20 yards.
mouseover definitions: epa/d, median EPA gain in similar game situation (down, distance, etc.)”>arsr, 3 yards to gain in game-neutral situations”>edp, opd, pr%, tip, ttt, adot, ay/c, yac, yacoe, yd/c, ac%, cpoe, aypa, scr%, ta%, sck%, aa%,...
