Stampede Blue
Thanks to the nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
Obviously, an out-of-shape 44-year-old with just four days to prepare for what is probably the 2nd toughest defense in the league provides context that shouldn’t be ignored. But ignore it, I will.
I measure QBs by how well they played and look for numbers that point to how well they may perform in the future. While I can certainly guess that Philip Rivers could improve with more time in the system, that is just that: a guess. I’m not interested in ifs and buts, so I will simply compare him to the 31 other QBs who played on Sunday.
Rivers produced a high volume of negative plays, leading to one of the worst success rates of the week and, in turn, a very poor EPA per play.
His biggest negative plays came on unconverted 3rd downs, and converting even a few of those would have gone a long way toward a win.
The next graphs show team-level comparisons, allowing you to see how he lined up against Daniel Jones. Rivers’ numbers are not good, but they also aren’t much worse than what the Colts saw in the previous few weeks.
He completed a high percentage of his passes, but that efficiency didn’t translate into first downs. With just 4.6 yards per attempt, sustaining drives was almost impossible.
Passing depth dropped off a cliff, as checkdowns and quick throws made up the bulk of the passing strategy. I guess I can’t call it a one-dimensional offense—maybe 1.5?
A game and a half without Jones and the offense suddenly became YAC-dependent, dropping five spots on the next graph.
Warren had the most targets, which I expected, but Abdullah had the most yards, which I did not.
Pierce has snuck by both Warren and Pittman as yards leader.
Downs and Warren jump out at me on this chart. Both should have been higher value, and Downs should have had more depth on his targets.
Season numbers still look good, for what it’s worth.
Although completion rate was high, accuracy was a problem—but not more so than in the previous three weeks.
Rivers is known for getting rid of the ball quickly and avoiding sacks, so it should be no surprise that he got rid of the ball quickly and avoided sacks.
This tells me his arm has a straight-line effective range of about...
