Stampede Blue
Thanks to the nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
This was a game where you can’t look at the scoreboard and determine how well Daniel Jones performed. Well, you should never do that — but many people try anyway… QB winzzz! The past few weeks, I haven’t felt great about how Jones was playing, but this game went a long way toward allaying those fears.
His 0.13 EPA per play isn’t a great number, but it isn’t bad — and he was facing the best passing defense in the league. Houston allows opposing QBs an average of -0.11 EPA per play. Read that again: that’s negative EPA per play. Jones was well, well above that baseline.
Now, his success rate is a different story — 40% is pretty poor — but even that is higher than what the Texans usually allow. And considering he was playing with a fractured fibula, he performed much better than I expected.
The first quarter was a slog, and he posted seven negative plays in a row. But the 2nd, 3rd, and the first part of the 4th quarter were simply brilliant — big positive plays, and only a handful of limited negative ones. Unfortunately, he ended with 3 incompletions and a turnover on downs.
His last few weeks have been shaky, but this was a clear bounce-back. His EPA was above average, his 1st-down conversion rate was right there as well, and his yardage efficiency was very good.
As I mentioned earlier, he had a great partial game that was book-ended by a lot of incompletions. Extreme pressure and a few receiver drops certainly contributed to that. But he also hit much longer completions this week than he has in a while — 8.3 adjusted yards per attempt is ridiculously high for a 53.6% completion rate.
You can see in these next graphs how his passing depth returned to normal, and his completion depth is almost off the chart. In fact, it can’t go off the chart because the 100th percentile is the maximum — and Jones hit that.
I’ve said this many times, but Jones doesn’t rely on YAC for his efficiency — he relies on passing depth, which is the exact opposite of how he operated in New York.
Pierce had a day and Warren had unusally low production.
Because of that, Warren has actually handed the season yardage crown to Pierce… for now.
I would’ve liked to see Pittman a lot higher...
