Stampede Blue
Thanks to the nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
Let’s be clear: this was not a good week for Jones. I’ve seen fans disagree or try to excuse it — citing the old “good enough to win” mantra. That’s typical dog-ate-my-homework nonsense. Sure, he looked good early and had a few great plays, but overall he simply couldn’t move the ball.
His 0.11 EPA per play isn’t bad, but his 36.4% success rate is terrible — it shows he had far more negative plays than positive ones, especially later in the game.
That poor success rate is why he posted one of the worst play-conversion rates of any QB — and why the Colts’ offense produced five three-and-outs and one of the worst Drive Success Rates by any team this year (55.6% DSR, 7th percentile).
His completion rate fell dramatically to 61.3%, and that included zero attempts over 20 air yards. He threw short, missed often, and when he did connect, it was for minimal yards and very few 1st downs.
If this chart looks like it slopes downward as the game went on, it’s because it does. That’s not good.
Both his passing depth and his completion depth were among the shortest of any QB. That’s not necessarily a bad thing — as long as you can complete a high percentage of those throws. He didn’t.
No receiver broke 50 yards, and even the two who reached 40+ yards got almost all of it from YAC.
On the year, Warren is still the yards leader.
Targets were distributed widely, but the majority of them carried low value and didn’t meaningfully move the offense.
Season-long target value still looks solid, but recent weeks have pulled that efficiency down noticeably.
Week 12 accuracy tanked, giving him his worst CPOE of the year.
Pressure forced him to throw a lot earlier than he wanted to. That was a key problem for him in New York.
He didn’t attempt a single deep pass, and even his shorter throws weren’t successful. Screen passes were the only bright spot this week.
I remember when this season chart was all green. Ah, memories.
mouseover definitions: epa/d, median EPA gain in similar game situation (down, distance, etc.)”>arsr, 3 yards to gain in game-neutral situations”>edp, opd, pr%, tip, ttt, adot, ay/c, yac, yacoe, yd/c, ac%, cpoe, aypa, scr%, ta%, sck%, aa%, aay, ny/d, ny/p,...
