Stampede Blue
Thanks to the nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the upcoming opponent QB has performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
I’ve been pessimistic about Daniel Jones’ ability to lead the Colts offense because, aside from one season, he’s been a bottom-tier QB in five of his six years in the league. But against the Dolphins, he put up a career game and made me eat my words—for now.
Starting this season I’m including designed QB runs in my numbers—not because I think it’s the right way to measure QB play, but because it’s the popular thing to do. Designed runs can easily skew QB numbers, but I’m willing to test it out for now.
That said, Daniel Jones greatly benefited from it this week: his four designed runs were all highly successful (two touchdowns and two first downs). Those plays boosted what was already an excellent passing performance—one that was consistently strong throughout the game. And consistency is exactly what was missing under Anthony Richardson. Jones’ 62.2% Success Rate is the highest number any Colts’ QB has put up in the last 4 years.
Over the last 17 games, Jones posted the highest EPA per play, highest QB success rate, and highest first-down percentage. His net yards per play only ranked third—which highlights why I’m not a fan of including designed runs. All four of his runs came in short-yardage (1-yard-to-gain) situations. He got the yards every time, but those plays dragged down his average.
His 75.9% completion rate and 9.4 yards per attempt kept the chains moving, leading to scores on all seven drives. He attempted 13 passes of 10+ yards and missed on only two.
His average depth of target was lower than what the Colts offense showed in 2024, but he connected on the deeper shots, which pushed his depth of completion far above average.
He spread the ball around very well and involved tight ends more.
All of his receivers finished in the positive EPA-per-target range.
It’s only been one game, but Jones showed far more accuracy than Richardson—and that’s what keeps the chains moving. And it wasn’t just checkdowns, either. His completion rate on passes of 10+ yards was outstanding. That’s something I’ll be watching closely, because in past seasons that hasn’t been the case for Jones.
Jones got the ball out fast, posting the second-lowest time to throw over the last 17 games. Even with a shorter-than-average depth of target, that’s an impressive release time—and...
