Stampede Blue
Odds courtesy of FanDuel, please gamble responsibly
The Colts are not a difficult team for sportsbooks to price right now. They have been stuck in the middle for years, and the current futures market reflects that.
Indianapolis is listed at +370 to win the AFC South, +166 to make the playoffs, and -125 to go over 7.5 wins. Those numbers all point to the same general view: the Colts are not a bad team, but they are also not being priced like a team that has clearly made the jump.
We won’t even look at the Super Bowl odds at +4500…
The roster has talent, but the problem is that most of the team’s futures value still comes down to the same question that has followed the franchise for years: can the quarterback play be good enough?
The division price is interesting, but it is not screaming value.
The Titans are probably not ready to fully take over the division, although they should be better and could absolutely take a game off the Colts. The Texans still look like a team in that 10-to-12 win range, especially with a defense that should remain one of the stronger units in the conference. The Jaguars are coming off a fantastic season with 13 wins and a close playoff loss, and while some regression is possible, they still have to be treated like one of the main teams to beat.
That makes the math difficult for Indianapolis.
With Houston and Jacksonville both reasonably expected to be around 10 wins or better, the Colts likely need 11 wins to feel good about winning the division. At 10 wins, they may have a chance, but they would need help and tiebreakers to break their way.
At +370, the implied probability is about 21 percent, and that feels close to right. The Colts need to find roughly three more wins compared to last season, and it is hard to say the roster has improved enough on paper to assume that happens automatically. If Jones is fully healthy and plays like he did during the best stretch of last season, then the Colts can absolutely be competitive. If he is average, limited by the Achilles, or inconsistent against better teams, winning the division will be impossible.
This is not a crazy bet. It is just not one with much clear value.
This is the most intriguing team future.
The path to a playoff spot is much more realistic than the path to a division title. The Colts probably need 10 wins to feel good about making it, while nine wins at least keeps them in the conversation depending on the AFC wild-card picture. Finding two more wins is a lot easier to imagine than finding three or four, especially when last season had several games that slipped away.
The Chiefs, Seahawks and Rams games come to mind. Those were the types of...
