Stampede Blue
Just hours before the trade deadline, Chris Ballard and the Indianapolis Colts made a blockbuster trade for Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, star cornerback of the New York Jets.
Gardner, just 25 and already one of the league’s premier cover men, brings elite length, physicality at the line, and the kind of confidence that shrinks throwing windows before the ball even leaves the quarterback’s hand.
For the Colts, this does two big things right away: it lets them play more aggressive coverage on early downs, and it gives them a matchup answer for the AFC’s potent passing attacks, namely the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens. Pairing Gardner with an improving pass rush should help the defense get off the field more consistently and take pressure off the offense.
While the Colts acquire a great player, they also acquire a hefty long-term contract and lose 2 first round picks.
As you can see, the Colts are on the books for a cheap deal for 2025 and 2026, but once 2027 hits and especially in 2028 and 2029, the contract explodes to a much higher number. As mentioned in the X post, there’s $70 million effectively guaranteed through 2028 so the Colts won’t be able to move the contract before then.
That structure isn’t a one-off. Chris Ballard has leaned on lighter early cap hits and heavier money in the out years, which is fine when your roster is young and cheap. It becomes harder when those later years line up with extensions for your own players.
The Colts have one of the best overall football rosters in the league this season, but after this season is over, they have 2 major free agents and a few other non-major ones:
The rest include Nick Cross, Kwity Paye, Braden Smith, Tyquan Lewis.
I wrote about the Jones deal last week and that could go a few different ways, but at the very least, he’s looking at a contract worth at least 40something million per year.
Alec Pierce has had a big start to the year and is one of the best deep threats in the entire NFL. Similar players have received contracts for anywhere between $15 million and $20 million per year. He should look to get a contract of at least $15 million.
The remaining players are not must keeps but let’s budget $20 million for some of those players and others who weren’t listed.
So if you account for Jones making $40 million in 2026, plus Pierce making $15 million in 2026 and keeping $20 million leftover for the rest, that’s $75 million that needs to be saved for those players just for next year.
And that’s before Sauce’s number jumps two years later. In other words, the Colts are already earmarking a big chunk of future cap just to keep their current group together, and the expensive years of the Gardner deal are waiting right behind that.
Why 3 years?
Because 2027–28 is when everything converges...
