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The Kansas City Chiefs’ playoff hopes are hanging on by a thread. Kansas City is 6-6 heading into an absolutely must-win Week 14 contest against Houston. Both teams are competing for a wild card spot in the AFC playoffs, which should add a little extra edge to that game.
It is so surprising to see the Chiefs in such a vulnerable position. Especially with Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce all still on the team and performing well.
If the playoffs started today, Kansas City would not make the cut. They are currently ranked 10th in the AFC and are behind Houston and Pittsburgh on the outside of the playoff picture.
The Chiefs truly have no margin for error, as even one more loss could put them hopelessly behind their competition.
Now is the perfect time of the season for media outlets to crunch the numbers and assign specific playoff odds to teams each week. Let’s see what they have to say about the Chiefs.
Below we will explore Kansas City’s playoff odds after their crushing loss in Week 13.
The DVOA playoff model over at FTN Fantasy paints a grim picture for the Chiefs.
It gives Kansas City a 46.2% overall chance to make the playoffs headed into Week 14. Kansas City has practically no chance (2%) to win the division, and their best chance of getting into the postseason is as the No. 7 seed (21%).
There is also no chance that Kansas City can secure the No. 1 seed.
On the bright side, the Chiefs have a better chance of making the playoffs as a wild card team (44.1%) than their division rivals the Chargers (41.6%).
ESPN’s playoff model also has a dim view of the Chiefs before Week 14.
This model gives Kansas City a 41% chance to make the postseason, putting them squarely in ninth place in the AFC.
The Chiefs have just a 2% chance at winning the division (just like the DVOA model) and have no shot at the No. 1 seed. But surprisingly, ESPN gives them a 9% chance to make the Super Bowl.
Perhaps ESPN is confident in Kansas City’s ability to make some noise in the playoffs. They are just uncertain if the Chiefs will actually get that far.
The Athletic’s has the lowest view of the Chiefs of the three models we’ll explore today.
They give Kansas City a 37% chance to make the playoffs headed into Week 14. Their division odds and chances to get the No. 1 seed match FTN Fantasy and ESPN.
The Chiefs only have a 2% chance to win the Super Bowl, one of the lowest odds of teams still alive in the AFC playoff picture. New England is the overwhelming favorite in the AFC at 16%, followed by Denver at 9% and Buffalo at 7%.
The Athletic’s playoff model includes...
