Chiefs playoff chances: Does KC have to run the table to make postseason?

The Kansas City Chiefs entered the 2025-26 season looking to become just the second team in NFL history to reach four straight Super Bowls. The only other team to accomplish that feat lost all of them, the 1990-1993 Buffalo Bills. But through 10 games, the Chiefs are left wondering whether they will even make the playoffs.

They are 5-5 after losing to the Denver Broncos in Week 11, 22-19.

If the playoffs started today, Kansas City would be left out. They are currently the ninth seed, tied with the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens. All three teams are one game back of the Jacksonville Jaguars for the final playoff spot.

Some people might theorize that there is nothing to worry about. The Jaguars are likely to drop a few games, and the Texans’ offense is still without quarterback CJ Stroud. You wouldn’t be entirely wrong. But there is more working against the Chiefs than ever before.

Kansas City is 1-2 in the AFC West, having already lost to both the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos. That puts catching the 9-2 Broncos highly unlikely as it is. Additionally, the Chiefs are 2-4 in the conference, with head-to-head losses to the Jaguars and sixth-seeded Chargers.

So, tiebreakers are highly unlikely to help Kansas City reach the postseason. That begs the question: Does Kansas City have to run the table to make the playoffs?

Do Chiefs Have to Win Out to Make Playoffs?

The definitive answer to that question is no, the Chiefs do not need to go 7-0. In fact, they probably would still reach the playoffs if they went 6-1. Not that that will be an easy feat.

Let’s take a look at their remaining schedule.

The defending AFC champs play the Indianapolis Colts this week. They follow that up with a Christmas Day game at Dallas against the Cowboys. The final five games are against Texans, Chargers, Titans, Broncos, and Raiders.

Of the seven games, four of them are at Arrowhead Stadium. That ought to help.

Another factor playing into Kansas City’s favor is the remaining schedule of the other teams.

The Texans face the Colts twice, Chiefs, Bills, and Chargers.

The Jaguars also face the Colts twice, and have a game against the Broncos in Denver. Plus, we don’t have to pretend Jacksonville couldn’t lose almost any game on their schedule.

Meanwhile, the Chargers’ injuries have derailed their season. Justin Herbert leads all quarterbacks in pressures and hits taken. They are only one game ahead of Kansas City in the loss column, with a game at Arrowhead remaining.

Then there is the Ravens. Everyone knows they are going to pass the Pittsburgh Steelers to win the AFC North. So, the Chiefs don’t need to worry about them in the Wild Card conversation. And with Aaron Rodgers’ wrist injury, and the Steelers’ defense looking ancient, it won’t take much to pass them.

All of that to say that running the table will not be required. But if the...