Arrowhead Pride
The Best NFL Bets for Week 15 | The Ringer
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (–5.5)
The Chargers pulled out the win against the Eagles in dramatic fashion on Monday night, but it’s hard to feel good about how their offense looked after a clearly hampered Justin Herbert finished 12-of-26, with just 5.3 yards per attempt. Herbert’s accuracy seemed limited by his left hand injury, and while he scrambled for 66 yards to keep the offense afloat, the constant pressure on him will likely continue to affect his performance. Herbert was pressured on 63.4 percent of his dropbacks on Monday night, and he had multiple turnovers. Now, he’ll face a defense that will bring pressure as much as possible. A healthy Herbert with a nearly full-strength offensive line carved open the Chiefs defense in the first week of the season, but now they’re facing a much different challenge at a raucous Arrowhead Stadium.
It seems like the dam could break for the Chargers offense in this game. They’ve kept afloat in most games—Jacksonville in Week 12 aside—since Joe Alt got injured again. But how long can they keep sustaining the offense with turnstile offensive lineman who are allowing absurd pressure rates?
I hate to sound like a broken record in this column, but the market continues to have immense respect for the quality and pedigree of the Chiefs. The betting markets still rate the Chiefs as the best team in the AFC, even if it is highly unlikely that they’ll make the playoffs now. If you were hoping for a discount to bet Kansas City, the betting markets won’t give you one.
The path to beating the Chargers defense is committing to the run game and methodically moving the ball. I’m not sure that the Chiefs can do the first part without making this game quite slow and low scoring.
Verdict: Bet under 41.5 (–110)
Can the Chargers end the Chiefs’ season and their reign over this rivalry? | The Athletic
They are also proof of an intimate understanding for the Chargers: The Chiefs never go down quietly, and it will take everything to put them away — within a game, or within a season.
“Everybody is fighting for their playoff lives, fighting for their football lives,” Harbaugh said, “and that’s what it’s going to be.”
A desperate Chiefs team will be a dangerous Chiefs team.
As Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter said this week, “They still have all the speed, they still have Travis Kelce, they still have Patrick Mahomes, the most valuable player almost year in and year out, and Andy Reid, a top play caller, one of the top play callers in the history of the game.”
The Chiefs’ offense ranks seventh in EPA per play this season, according to TruMedia.
Defensively, the Chiefs are 12th in EPA per play....
