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Week 14 QB Notebook: The Chiefs Are Breaking Patrick Mahomes | The Ringer
The Kansas City Chiefs are breaking Patrick Mahomes.
Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in scrambles. He’s also on pace to set a career-high scramble rate—around 9 percent of his dropbacks this season are ending with a run. We saw Mahomes’s scramble rate approach that number in one other season: the Chiefs’ Super Bowl–winning 2023 campaign, when the offense was broken for much of the year and none of his receivers could catch the damn ball. When Mahomes loses trust in the offense and the players around him, his scramble rate spikes. It’s a clear recession indicator for the Chiefs’ passing game.
Sunday night’s 20-10 loss to Houston was another scramble-heavy game for Mahomes, who was playing behind a depleted offensive line and throwing to receivers who had a severe case of the drops—and were going up against the NFL’s best defense. You can see why he felt the need to take the game into his own hands. The entire contest was one big indictment of the job Andy Reid and Brett Veach have done building around their superstar quarterback. And it was painfully apparent that the Chiefs offense was outgunned on third down, when the Texans defense knew that a pass was coming. The offensive line didn’t stand a chance against Houston’s pass rush, and the receivers struggled to find any open space against the secondary.
Chiefs must win out
Chiefs’ remaining schedule: vs. Chargers, at Titans, vs. Broncos, at Raiders
Breakdown: The biggest upside for the Chiefs down the stretch is that their two most difficult games are at home. The Chiefs have won three straight home games against the Chargers and nine straight home games against the Broncos. Not to mention, the Chiefs are 5-2 at home this year, so winning both games is certainly within the realm of possibility. If they don’t slip up against the Titans or Raiders, 10-7 is definitely realistic.Chargers must finish 10-7 or worse
Chargers’ remaining schedule: at Chiefs, at Cowboys, vs. Texans, at Broncos
Breakdown: The Chargers (9-4) currently have the sixth-most difficult remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, so it would be completely possible for them to go 1-3 or worse down the stretch. Of the Chargers’ four remaining games, they HAVE to lose to the Chiefs and Broncos. The reason the Chiefs need those two specific losses is so that they can finish with the same division record (4-2) as the Chargers, which would create a tiebreaker situation that would benefit Kansas City. Of the two non-divisional games that L.A. has left, the Chiefs could still make the playoffs as long as the Chargers go 1-1 or 0-2 against the Cowboys and Texans. If that happens, the Chargers will...
