Acme Packing Company
We’re so far removed from the Thanksgiving win over the Detroit Lions that I’m ready to lock into the Green Bay Packers’ next opponent: the Chicago Bears. Usually, we wait until later in the week to give you a preview of what’s coming this weekend, but let’s go ahead and take a deep dive into some of the meaningful stats that the Bears’ offense has posted throughout the year. Tomorrow, we’ll have a corresponding piece covering Chicago’s defense.
The most interesting stat here to me is time to throw. Since the Packers added Micah Parsons, teams have been living in quick game, not giving Green Bay’s pass-rushers much of an opportunity at all to get home. Meanwhile, the Bears have averaged a 3.19 second time to throw this season. For perspective, the gap between them and the 31st-ranked team (Philadelphia Eagles, 2.99 seconds) is the same gap between the 31st-ranked team and the 22nd-ranked team (Washington Commanders, 2.79 seconds).
So Bears quarterback Caleb Williams holds onto the ball forever, relative to the NFL average. That could be influenced by Chicago’s high play-action percentage (3rd in the league), but that doesn’t explain all of it. Maybe there’s an opportunity for Parsons to get more shots than usual on the quarterback this week.
There’s no way to sugarcoat this one: The Bears are good at running the football. They’ve both been explosive and consistent this year, mostly by leaning on the outside run game rather than running between their interior offensive line. It’s going to be a big game for setting the edge with the Packers’ defensive ends and making one-on-one tackles on the perimeter.
Here’s the good news: Green Bay effectively shut down Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery twice this season in previous divisional matchups.
Interestingly, the worst ball-carrier in the Bears’ backfield is the one who is getting the most opportunities. Here’s the EPA breakdown of Chicago’s top ball-carriers:
Basically, the two running backs offset each other’s contributions. It’s just helped (a lot) that the Bears have Williams, who is second among quarterbacks in rushing yards over expectations, scrambling for big plays. That probably shows up in Chicago’s high outside the tackles rushing rate, too.
So the Bears are in an odd situation where they have an elite running game, but it’s mostly because of scrambles in high-leverage spots, not because of their actual running backs.
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