Windy City Gridiron
“Ride her until she bucks you, or don’t ride her at all.“ – Roy ”Tin Cup” McAvoy
Well, all great things come to an end, and the hot streak that’s gone over a year and a half of NFL games came crashing down on fabulous Friday in November. Yes, the Bears won this game, and won it fabulously, but it certainly wasn’t our best gambling day.
We hit D’Andre Swift’s over for receiving prop by less than a yard. We missed Colston Loveland’s receiving prop by 3.5 yards. We thought Caleb Williams would run a little, and he certainly didn’t do that.
1 win, 2 losses. Our record on the season is now 23-13 as we head to Lambeau Field to see if we have a better handle on how this one is going to play out. Let’s get to it. Here are the 3 props for this week.
Coming off the way this running game operated on Black Friday, this feels like the biggest no-brainer out there. Yes, the NFL is a week-to-week league, but the Bears have had a major focus on running the football, and the scheme was fabulous, and the offensive line execution was incredible. From the Packers’ side, DeVonte Wyatt, a key member of their run defense, is out. Swift feels like a really good bet. If you want to parlay both Swift and Monangai over (47.5), you can get that number at +200 if you’re interested.
We are going back to Luther Burden as he has steadily become a bigger and bigger part of the Bears’ offense over the last few weeks. Over the last four games, Burden has averaged 39 yards a game over the last four games and it looks like Rome Odunze is going to be out, and if he does play, he will be significantly limited. You could also consider DJ Moore over receiving yards in this one, but Moore’s numbers are all over the board. There are games where Moore still gets 80 yards, and other days where he gets 15. Burden’s targets have been far more consistent, and he feels like the better play.
Loveland went under last week by a couple of yards, but his usage rate over the last several weeks cannot be ignored. Since the Ravens game, Loveland’s receiving yards per game have been 38, 118, 55, 40, 49, and 28. Feels like Loveland would have gone over again vs the Eagles if the run game wasn’t so spectacular and the Bears passed the football a little more. Loveland has become a key cog in the passing attack, and the over is a good play.
Not an official play, but I do like Caleb Williams over 193 passing yards. It’s going to be quite cold in Green Bay, and there are too many factors with that for me to be certain...
