CFB Overreactions: Arch Manning flops, John Mateer rises to top

CFB Overreactions: Arch Manning flops, John Mateer rises to top
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One thing is clear about the 2026 offseason for the Los Angeles Rams: They’ll be in the quarterback market whether through the draft of veteran trade. Fortunately, they started preparing for this scenario last year when they acquired an additional first round pick for the Atlanta Falcons.

It’s time to discuss what we learned from the first week of college football particularly as it relates to the signal callers in next spring’s draft class.

There’s a new sheriff in town, and you should start doing as much homework as you can on Oklahoma’s John Mateer.

John Mateer, Oklahoma

Consensus boards currently have Mateer as the 54th overall player in 2026. He played last season at Washington State where he threw passes to now-New England Patriots receiver Kyle Williams. His offense coordinator also came to Oklahoma with him, so there’s consistency at the play caller level.

Simply put, Mateer is an incredible physical talent. He runs a 4.6 40-yard dash and looks more like a running back from a build perspective. In the opening week against Illinois State, he ran over a defender along the boundary to power through for a touchdown.

Sure, it’s mildly concerning that he’s only 6-1. Like most shorter quarterbacks he must get better at throwing over the middle of the field. The positives seem to significantly outweigh the one notable drawback to his prospect profile.

Mateer reminds me of a more souped up version of Zach Wilson. That idea probably causes fans to shudder; however, the bet the New York Jets made on Wilson’s ceiling is probably one you’d still make 99 times out of 100. It’s also worth noting that Mike LaFleur—LA’s offensive coordinator—was in the same role under Robert Saleh in New York when the Jets drafted Wilson. That seems to suggest how Mateer could be a fit for LaFleur and McVay in Los Angeles.

Most importantly, teams are always going to buy the prospect with the highest ceiling. Elite quarterbacks by their very nature are exceptions, and you must chase exceptions in order to strike gold.

If teams have a choice between Garrett Nussmeier, Cade Klubnik, Drew Allar, LaNorris Sellers, and Mateer, they will probably bet on Sellers and Mateer early in the draft almost every time. That’s the key determinant in how I view the 2026 crop of signal callers.

Arch Manning, Texas

We must remember that this was Manning’s first career start on the road and it came against a team in Ohio State with near-NFL level talent. Still, Manning looked incredibly uncomfortable and rattled. His footwork and technique looked all over the place. It makes me wonder how much these issues cropped up in practice and whether this is truly an outlier event.

Confidence is key for quarterbacks. The lofty expectations for Manning was probably unfair given where he was in his college career. It’s difficult to imagine him bouncing back in a big way that drives him to leave for the NFL Draft this year.

It’s only...