Big Blue View
The New York Giants are on a five-game losing streak and are traveling to Detroit for Week 12. The Lions possess one of the most potent offenses in the league, with a rugged offensive line, a plethora of skilled players, and a head coach who took over play-calling two weeks ago.
Dan Campbell assumed the role of play caller during the 44-22 win over the Washington Commanders in Week 10. He relieved offensive coordinator, John Morton. It was an excellent start for Campbell, but the Lions were held to just nine points in Week 11 in Philadelphia against the Eagles.
Detroit lost 16-9 in Philadelphia and is now in third place in the NFC North with a respectable 6-4 record. With the 2-9 Giants coming to town, it’s safe to say that Week 12 may act as a get-right game for the Lions. The Giants are 10.5-point road underdogs with an Over-Under of 49.5 points. The presence of rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart will be important for the Giants, but a dome-game featuring Jameis Winston could still yield points for Big-Blue — but can the Giants’ porous defense slow down Jared Goff and the Lions?
Detroit averages 29.2 points per game, tied for fourth in the NFL with the Buffalo Bills. Only the Colts, Cowboys, and Seahawks score more. The Lions also put up 366.9 yards per game, fifth-best in the league. Their dynamic one-two rushing attack—powered primarily by Jahmyr Gibbs with David Montgomery as a strong complementary force—ranks seventh in the NFL at 130.1 rushing yards per game.
Jared Goff averages 236.8 passing yards per game, which ranks ninth in the NFL. The Lions’ play-action passing attack is dangerous, and Goff thrives in that environment. Conversely, the Giants significantly struggled to defend play-action passing. The Lions’ red-zone offense is dangerous, averaging a 66.67% touchdown conversion rate, tied for fifth in the NFL with the Buffalo Bills.
Detroit isn’t top-10 in every offensive category. They do rank 27th overall in third-down conversion rate, with a 36% average. For context, the Green Bay Packers are number one in the NFL with a 49.19 average; New York allowed a 7-of-11 conversion rate last week: 63.6%. The Giants’ offense is 12th in the league with a 40.54% average.
The Lions have used 11 personnel at a 57% rate. That primary package consists of one of the most dynamic receivers, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and one of the best deep threats, Jameson Williams, who was recently rewarded with a contract. Veteran Kalif Raymond typically operates the slot in 11 personnel.
I would expect the Giants to see more 11 personnel with the injury to tight end Sam Laporta. Brock Wright assumed the full-time role against the Eagles after LaPorta was placed on IR. In that game, the Lions used 11 personnel at an insanely high 92% rate. Ross Dwelley is the Lions’ second tight end behind Wright, and he played just two snaps.
This likely means lighter personnel for Shane...
