New England Patriots - NESN.com
The New England Patriots will have a chance to clinch their first AFC East title since 2019 when they host the Buffalo Bills in Week 15. But could they be locked into a playoff spot before the game even starts?
The short answer: no.
There is nothing that can happen this weekend that will enable the Patriots to clinch a playoff berth during their bye week. That feels impossible for a first-place 11-2 team in a seven-team playoff field, but it’s the truth.
The details involve remaining schedules and various tiebreaker scenarios. However, we’re going to try to make this as straightforward as possible.
With four games left on their schedule, the Patriots can’t finish with more than six losses. As such, for them to clinch a playoff berth this week, they would need one of two things to happen: Nine of the 16 AFC teams emerge from Week 14 with at least seven losses, or all six-loss teams are guaranteed to have worse head-to-head records and in-conference records, which are the first- and second-ranking conference-standing tiebreakers, respectively.
Neither of those scenarios can happen in Week 14. Before we dig into the minutia, let’s look at the current AFC standings.
(Note: Division leaders automatically occupy the top four seeds, and only the top seed gets a first-round bye.)
IN PLAYOFFS
1. New England Patriots (11-2)
2. Denver Broncos (10-2)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
6. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
7. Buffalo Bills (8-4)
OUT OF PLAYOFFS
8. Houston Texans (7-5)
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6)
10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
11. Miami Dolphins (7-7)
12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)
13. New York Jets (3-9)
14. Cleveland Browns (3-9)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)
16. Tennessee Titans (1-11)
As you can see, six teams already have at least seven losses, meaning they can’t make the playoffs over the Patriots in a world in which New England loses out to finish 11-6. But three non-playoff teams — the Texans, Steelers and Chiefs — still hypothetically could finish with six losses, thus introducing tiebreakers, with the Texans still capable of finishing 12-5.
The Steelers will visit the Ravens on Sunday, whereas the Texans will visit the Chiefs
Moreover, the Patriots would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker against Pittsburgh, and nothing can happen this week that would guarantee them a better in-conference record than the Texans, Steelers or Chiefs.
Here are the in-conference records for all four teams entering Week 14:
Patriots: 6-2
Texans: 6-2
Steelers: 5-3
Chiefs: 3-4
All NFL teams play 12 games against their respective conferences; so, New England still could finish with a 6-6 record against AFC opponents. Regardless of outcomes this week, Houston, Pittsburgh and Kansas City all would remain capable of finishing with five or fewer conference losses.
Now, the Patriots could forget about the Steelers and Chiefs if both lose on Sunday, but they still would have to think about Houston. And if the Chiefs win, they and the Texans both would have...
